TJ-WRF逐时地面太阳辐射的预报订正  

Correction on Forecasting of Hourly Surface Solar Radiation Based on TJ-WRF Model

作　　者：黄鹤[1] 王佳[1,2] 刘爱霞[1] 刘寿东[2] 冯帅 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300061 [2]耶鲁大学-南京信息工程大学大气环境中心,南京210044 [3]天津市静海气象局,天津301600

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第5期1445-1451,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106001);天津市科技计划项目(14ZCZDGX00037);天津市气象局科技培育项目(KJPY2013002)

摘　　要：利用中尺度数值模式TJ-WRF对2012年1月9日至2月29日逐时地面太阳辐射通量进行了模拟,评估了模式预报效果并对其进行统计订正。结果表明,TJ-WRF模式对地面太阳辐射具备一定的模拟能力,预报值与实测值的相关系数为0.83 1,其中,晴天预报效果最好,相关系数高达0.978;云量预报的准确度及未考虑气溶胶的影响是导致模式误差的主要原因,建立TJ-WRF预报值与实测值的差值和气象要素模拟量之间的关系实现对地面辐射预报的订正效果最佳,订正后相对均方根误差降到24.75%,平均绝对百分比误差为19.34%。Using the meso-scale numerical model TJ-WRF,the hourly solar radiation from 9 January to 29 February was simulated,and the prediction effect was evaluated and corrected.The results showed that TJ-WRF model had certain ability to simulate the solar radiation,the correlation coefficient between simulation value and measured value was 0.831,and in sunny weather the simulation effect was the best,the correlation coefficient was 0.978.Analysis showed that the accuracy amount of the cloud simulated and the lack of aerosol were the main reasons for the simulation error.The correction effect by establishing the correlation between the difference between simulation value and measured value of solar radiation and the simulation of meteorological elements was the best,the relative root mean square error was 24.75%,mean absolute percentage error was 19.34%after correction.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 TJ-WRF模式 误差分析 统计订正 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]