全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征  

New Characteristics of Temperature Change over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the Background of Global Warming

作　　者：郑然[1,2] 李栋梁[1,2] 蒋元春 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第6期1531-1539,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：重大科学研究计划项目(2013CB956004);冻土工程国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLFSE201306);国家自然科学基金项目(91337109;41305080);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406001);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：利用1971-2011年青藏高原81个站点经均一化处理的气温资料,采用面积权重方法对青藏高原近41年气温变化的特征进行了研究。结果表明,青藏高原在1997年存在更为明显的增暖突变,落后于华北(1989年)、东北(1987年)8~10年,比西南、华南(1996年)和华东、西北(1994年)落后1~3年。高原内部的突变发生过程与高原地形有明显的关系,表现为海拔越高,突变发生越晚。此外,突变前后的增暖形式也存在一定的差别,即突变前增暖幅度随海拔的升高而减小,突变后则表现为海拔越高气温倾向率越大,且通过了99%的显著性检验。突变前后高原增暖幅度最大均在冬季,突变后秋、冬季增暖幅度有所减小,夏季有所增大。相比全球近15年增暖趋缓现象,高原在突变后表现为更大幅度的增暖,高原气温与全球气温的同期波动形态相似,两者具有较好相关性。Based on after homogenization treatment data at 81 stations over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)from 1971 to 2011,using of the area weighting method,the new characters of temperature over the QXP for nearly 41 years is researched.The result show that the QXP has a more significant warm mutation in 1997,lag behind the North China(1989),the Northeast China(1987) for 8~10 years,and later about 1 ~ 3 years than south and east and northwest of China.The mutation process in interior plateau has a significant relationship with terrain of the QXP,which performance as the higher the altitude,the later mutation.Besides,the warming form before and after the mutation is different,before the mutation the magnitude of warming decrease with elevation,but after the mutation the increasing tendency of temperature shows as increase with altitude,which by a99%significant test.The maximum magnitude of the QXP wanning no matter after and before mutation is in winter,and after the mutation the magnitude of wanning in fall and winter had decreased,but increased in summer.Compared with the slowdown of global warming for recent 15 years,plateau after mutation showed more substantial wanning,and the phase of temperature fluctuations over the QXP similar to the global temperature,both have good consistency.

关 键 词：青藏高原 气温 面积权重 M-K检验 海拔 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]