中国气候态变化特征及其对气候变化分析的影响  

Characteristics of China Climate States Change and Its Impact on the Analysis of Climate Change

作　　者：林婧婧[1,2] 张强[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]西北区域气候中心,兰州730020 [3]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [4]甘肃省气象局,兰州730020

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第6期1593-1600,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430206-6);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306027);2015年甘肃省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2015-11)

摘　　要：利用1961-2012年中国2000多个气象站气温、降水量资料,对1971-2000年、1981-2010年气候态与气候标准态进行了对比,分析了不同气候态下气象要素的基本特征,并运用气候评价等级指标和极值标准对中国历年基本气象要素数据进行了定量分析。结果表明:(1)1971-2000年、1981-2010年所描述的气候态与气候标准态相比,分别表现为略偏高和略偏低,由此对气候分析和评价产生减轻或加重的影响;(2)不同气候态下,气温等级中异常偏冷的频率均增大,异常偏热的频率有所不同;(3)在分析中国同时期同类要素极端高值出现概率时,采用不同气候态分析的结果出现了截然相反的变化,然而在分析气象要素极端低值概率时则一致出现概率增多现象,1981-2010年气候态的增多现象更为明显。Based on the yearly surface air temperature and yearly precipitation of nearly 2000 meteorological stations over China from 1961 to 2012,compared the differences between the climate state and the climate standard state for the periods of 1971-2000 and 1981-2010. And used the standard of temperature grades and precipitation grades,and the definition of extreme events,the quantitative analysis of temperature and precipitation characteristics under different climate states for are investigated. The results indicate that:( 1) The comparisons between climate state and climate standard state for the periods of 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 are respectively slightly higher and lower,which are likely to influence the climate analysis and evaluation;( 2) Under the different climate states,the frequency of abnormal cold temperature grade increase,but the abnormal heat temperature are different;( 3) Analyzed the frequency of extreme high value for the same elements in the same period,they are diametrically opposite under the different climate climates. But the frequency of the extreme lowvalue are the consistent increase,especially the climate state of 1981-2010.

关 键 词：气候态 气候变化 异常等级 极值检测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]