BCC-AGCM-Chem0模式对20世纪全球O_3气候平均态及季节变化特征的模拟研究  

Simulation Study about Climatological Basic State and Seasonal Variations of Global O_3 in the 20^(th) Century

作　　者：李书博[1,2] 吴统文[2] 张洁[2] 张芳[2] WANG Jun 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,University of Nebraska-Lincoln,usa685880417

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第6期1601-1615,共15页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951902);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201306048)

摘　　要：利用由国家气候中心最近研发的全球大气环流化学模式BCC-AGCM-ChemO对1871-1999年全球大气O_3浓度进行了模拟,并利用全球臭氧和紫外线辐射数据中心(WOUDC)提供的O_3台站观测资料以及第5次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)整理的一套全球O_3分析资料对BCC-AGCM-ChemO模拟的O_3的气候平均态及季节变化特征进行了评估。结果表明:(1)BCC-AGCM-ChemO模式模拟出了全球年平均的O_3空间分布特征,表现为北半球O_3浓度高于南半球,O_3的经向分布大致呈由低纬向高纬递增;模式可以再现台站观测的O_3浓度垂直分布结构;相对于CMIP5分析数据,BCC-AGCM-ChemO模拟的O_3气柱总量在40°S以南的南大洋区域,模拟值偏低3~6 DU,在40°S-50°N中低纬地区略偏高3~6DU,陆地地区差异明显大于海洋地区,这些模拟偏差与地面排放和模式中O_3水平和垂直平流输送的影响有关。(2)BCC-AGCM-ChemO模式对全球O_3浓度的季节变化特征也有较好的模拟能力,模拟的O_3柱浓度与CMIP5资料的结果在1、4、7和10月的全球格点空间相关系数分别达到0.89,0.97,0.86和0.91;模式再现了南、北半球O_3浓度春季偏大、秋季偏小的特点;(3)从模式模拟和台站观测的对比分析来看,500 hPa以上的对流层中高层与以下的对流层中低层的O_3季节变化峰值存在明显的不一致性,表明500 hPa以下的中低层区域O_3变化可能受地面排放和干、湿等过程的影响较大,而对流层中高层的O_3变化可能与化学过程和平流层向下的输送影响较大有关。The global chemistry-general circulation model BCC-AGCM-ChemO,newly developed in Beijing Climate Center,is used to investigate model performance in simulations of the tropospheric ozone from 1871 to1999.Global archive of ground-based ozone data products derived from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre(WOUDC) as well as the ozone data provided by CMIP5 are employed for model evaluation.BCC-AGCM-ChemO can well capture climate mean state of ozone.Ozone concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is higher than that in the Southern Hemisphere,and is poleward increase.Simulated vertical ozone profiles agreed well with the ground-based ozone data.In comparison with the CM1P5 data,BCC-AGCM-ChemO underestimated ozone concentration over the South Ocean south of 40°S and overestimated it over the latitude band from 40°S to 50°N about 3 to 6 Dobson units.Model biases are more pronounced over land than over ocean,which may be attributable to surface ozone emission,horizontal and vertical ozone advections.Spatial structures of the ozone seasonal evolution are also well reproduced.Spatial correlation coefficients of the ozone concentration between the BCC-AGCM-ChemO simulation and the CMIP5 data in January,April,July and October are 0.89,0.97,0.86 and 0.91,respectively.The ozone concentration reaches its maximum in spring and its minimum in autumn for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.The seasonal evolutions of the ozone concentration show different performances below and above 500 hPa.This is evident in both simulation and the ground-based observation.Ozone concentration changes at the lower troposphere may be due to surface emission,dry and wet deposition,whereas ozone concentration changes at the higher troposphere can be attributed to chemistry reactions and the downward ozone transport from the stratosphere.

关 键 词：BCC-AGCM-ChemO 模拟评估 模式基本气候态 O3季节变化特征 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]