孟加拉湾感热净通量与陕西秋季降水的联系  

Relationship between Sensible Heat Net Flux over the Bay of Bengal and Autumn Rainfall during September and October in Shaanxi

作　　者：王丹 盛立芳[2] 黄少妮[3] 白光弼 高红燕 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象服务中心,西安710014 [2]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室海洋-大气相互作用气候实验室,青岛266100 [3]陕西省气象台,西安710014

出　　处：《高原气象》2015年第6期1658-1667,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：陕西省气象局预报员专项(2014Y-24);陕西省气象局数值预报应用研究创新团队

摘　　要：利用1979-2011年9-10月陕西96个台站的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,研究了孟加拉湾感热净通量与陕西秋季降水的关系,并对其成因机制进行了初步分析。结果表明,陕西秋季降水与孟加拉湾感热净通量为显著负相关。秋季当该海域感热净通量偏弱时,乌拉尔山附近易于形成阻塞高压,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西偏北,陕西地区来自太平洋和印度洋的偏南水汽输送增强,大气辐合上升运动也增强,同时,9月南亚高压位置偏北、南亚夏季型季风偏强,易造成陕西秋季降水偏多的环流形势。陕西秋季降水异常与低纬度海温的年际背景场有关,秋季低纬度海洋SST的EOF第二模态的空间型一定程度上可以解释孟加拉湾感热净通量与陕西降水的联系。孟加拉湾秋季的感热通量与上一年冬季和当年夏季的感热净通量呈显著正相关,可根据该海域上一年冬季和当年夏季的感热净通量强弱估计其秋季感热状况,从而预测陕西秋季降水的多寡。Based on the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis monthly data and daily precipitation data in autumn during September and October at 96 stations in Shaanxi from 1979 to 2011,the relationship between sensible heat net flux over the Bay of Bengal and autumn rainfall in Shaanxi has been studied,which possible cause and mechanism is also preliminary analyzed. The result shows that there is a notable negative correlation between the rainfall in Shaanxi and the intensity of the sensible heat net flux over the Bay of Bengal in autumn. The rainfall in Shaanxi is more than normal while the sensible heat source over the Bay of Bengal is weaker in autumn. The Ural blocking high is stronger than normal,the ridge positions of the western Pacific subtropical high lean to west and north,and the vapor transport comes from the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic ocean by southerly flowand convergent upward velocity in Shaanxi are strengthened while the intensity of the sensible heat net flux over the Bay of Bengal is weaker in autumn,which is propitious to appearance of circulation making for the autumn rainfall in Shaanxi. Besides,the position of South Asian High is lean to north,and the South Asian Summer Monsoon is stronger than normal in September. Abnormal autumn precipitation in Shaanxi is close to the characteristics of sea surface temperature in lowlatitude. In some extent the relationship between sensible heat net flux over the Bay of Bengal and rainfall in Shaanxi can be explained by spatial pattern of the second EOF model of SST in autumn.The sensible heat source over the Bay of Bengal in autumn has significantly positive correlation with that in previous winter and summer,which can be taken as a reference for forecast of autumn rainfall in Shaanxi.

关 键 词：秋季降水 孟加拉湾 感热净通量 陕西 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P461.2