基于MCR与FLUS的新安江流域城市开发边界划定研究  

Research on the Delineation of Urban Development Boundary in the Xin′an River Basin Based on MCR and FLUS

作　　者：雷蕾 蔡俊[1] 宋小杰 LEI Lei;CAI Jun;SONG Xiao-jie(College of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《辽宁大学学报(自然科学版)》2024年第4期349-359,共11页Journal of Liaoning University:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(71203054);安徽农业大学2021年安徽乡村振兴战略研究中心项目(校科字〔2021〕10号)。

摘　　要：为了控制城市无序蔓延并引导城市合理的扩张,从空间规划的角度来制定合理的城市开发边界(Urban development boundary,UDB)显得非常必要.本文以新安江流域为研究区,从城市扩张以及城市空间演变规律两个角度出发,耦合最小累积阻力(Minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型与未来土地利用变化情景模拟(Future land use simulation,FLUS)模型,以阻力与动力相结合的思路为导向,提出了一种新的UDB划定方法,在划分城市扩张适宜性等级基础上,预测2030年、2040年城市扩张,从而综合划定UDB.结果表明:1)城市扩展模拟的Kappa系数为0.81,总体精度为89.55%,能较好反映未来土地变化情况;2)不同城市扩张幅度不同,扩张明显的为杭州市、衢州市以及金华市;3)融合阻力和动力两种模型划定的UDB,更加符合研究区的空间扩张演变规律,能够真实地展示研究区UDB的发展状态.In order to control the disorderly sprawl of the city and guide the rational expansion of the city,it is necessary to formulate a reasonable urban development boundary from the perspective of spatial planning.Taking the Xin′an River Basin as the study area,this paper proposes a new method for delineating urban development boundaries from the perspectives of urban expansion and urban spatial evolution,coupling the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model and the future land use simulation(FLUS)model,and taking the idea of combining resistance and dynamics,to predict urban expansion in 2030 and 2040 on the basis of dividing the suitability level of urban expansion,so as to comprehensively delineate the urban development boundary.The results show that:1)The Kappa coefficient of urban expansion simulation is 0.81,and the overall accuracy is 89.55%,which can better reflect the future land change;2)The expansion range of different cities was different,and the obvious expansion was Hangzhou,Quzhou and Jinhua;3)The delineation of the urban development boundary by integrating the two aspects of power and resistance is more in line with the law of spatial expansion and evolution of the study area,and can truly show the development status of the urban development boundary in the study area.

关 键 词：城市开发边界 新安江流域 MCR模型 FLUS模型 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]