传统村落木结构灭火失效概率分析  

Analysis of failure probability of traditional wood structure fire suppression

作　　者：何忠义 邹宇 李伟燕 HE Zhongyi;ZOU Yu;LI Weiyan(Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第1期20-24,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AC100004,202003AC100001)。

摘　　要：为研究传统村落木结构灭火失效概率,结合消防队介入模型和Benichou模型提出传统村落失效功能函数。在此基础上,利用JC法计算验算点值,采用蒙特卡洛重要性抽样模拟分析灭火失效概率,并使用提出的功能函数对云南丽江传统村落木结构进行灭火失效概率分析。结果表明,该村落的失效概率达到53.3%,且随着门窗开启率的增加,灭火失效概率逐步降低;行车时间的不确定性对失效概率影响最大,门窗开启率的不确定性对失效概率影响最小;随着救援距离的减少,灭火失效概率呈降低趋势,可通过减少救援距离、增加门窗开启率等改进措施降低灭火失效概率。In order to study the probability of fire failure of wooden structures in traditional villages,the failure func-tional function of traditional villages was proposed by using the fire brigade intervention model and Benichou model.The JC method was used to calculate the check point value,and the probability of fire extinguishing failure was anal-yzed by Monte Carlo important sampling simulation.The proposed functional function was used to analyze the proba-bility of fire extinguishing failure ofthe wooden structure in Lijiang,Yunnan Province.The results show that the failure probability of the village reaches 53.3%,and the probability of fire extinguishing failure gradually decreases with the increase of the opening rate of doors and windows.The uncertainty of the driving time has the greatest impact on the failure probability,and the uncertainty of the opening rate of doors and windows has the least impact on the failure probability.With the decrease of rescue distance,the probability of fire extinguishing failure decreases,and the proba-bility of fire extinguishing failure can be reduced by reducing the rescue distance and increasing the opening rate of doors and windows.

关 键 词：传统村落木结构 功能函数 灭火失效概率 蒙特卡洛重要性抽样模拟 

分 类 号：TU998.1[建筑科学—市政工程]