基于复杂演化网络的长江水上交通安全风险分析  

Risk analysis of water traffic safety in Yangtze River based on complex evolutionary networks

作　　者：王文李 WANG Wenli(Fuzhou Transportation Comprehensive Law Enforcement Detachment,Fuzhou Fujian 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福州市交通运输综合执法支队,福建福州350001

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第1期42-48,共7页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：中国智慧工程研究会重点课题子课题(ZNXX202307-20)。

摘　　要：为了维护长江航行安全,总结85起长江水上交通典型案例,构建长江水上交通事故演化模型,利用度中心系数、点介数中心系数等复杂演化网络分析工具,分析了长江水上交通事故风险演化特征、规律及机制。结果表明,必须同时防控同类风险内所有源风险事件;必须为反复出现的同一隐患建立长效检查整改和教育机制;必须重视防控碰撞事故、触礁/触损事故与沉没事故3个节点前后相邻的不同节点;必须在结构上重塑长江水上运输企业文化,在海事监管上统筹防控根本原因-间接原因-直接原因的各节点;最大连通子图在遏制长江水上交通事故产生和体现演化过程方面作用最明显;经济损失和人员损失比环境破坏损失更容易出现并会加重水上交通事故破坏力。In order to maintain the navigation safety of the Yangtze River,85 typical cases of Yangtze River water traffic were summarized,and the evolution model of the Yangtze River water traffic accidents was constructed,based on the analysis of the characteristics,rules and mechanism of the risk evolution of the Yangtze River water traffic ac-cidents.The results show that all originnal risk events within the same type of risk must be controlled at the same time;there must be long-term checked and educational mechanisms for the recurrence of the same problems;it is necessary to pay attention to preventing and controlling the different adjacent nodes before and after the three nodes collision ac-cident,reef/damage accident and sinking accident;it is necessary to reshape the culture of the Yangtze River water transport enterprises,and coordinate the prevention and control of the root cause-indirect cause-direct cause nodes in maritime supervision;the maximum connectivity sub-map plays the most important role in restraining the occurrence and evolution of the Yangtze River water traffic accidents;economic losses and human losses are more likely to occur than environmental damage and will aggravate the destructive power of water traffic accidents.

关 键 词：长江水上交通安全 事故演化网络 风险分析 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]