基于我国燃气事故的燃气安全熵模型研究  

Research on gas safety entropy model based on gas accidents in China

作　　者：张润钊 李琼[1] 刘笑乐 赵臣 王宇杰 ZHANG Runzhao;LI Qiong;LIU Xiaole;ZHAO Chen;WANG Yujie(North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院,北京东燕郊065201

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2025年第1期78-84,共7页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

摘　　要：燃气安全是城市安全运行的重要组成部分。燃气事故的发生给人们的生命财产带来了极大的威胁。本文在分析2011-2023年我国已发表的101起重大燃气安全事故报告的基础上,建立了燃气安全熵模型和燃气事故风险因素体系。在此基础上,综合考虑人、物、环境、管理等因素,采用熵权法对燃气系统的安全熵进行了逐年分析。分析结果表明,失误操作因素所占权重分别是违规违章作业和消极懈怠脱岗权重的3.5倍和7倍。燃气事故安全熵呈现周期性变化规律。研究结果能够为我国城市燃气安全隐患识别、风险评估、安全管理提供客观科学的理论支撑。Gas safety is an important part of the urban safe operation.The occurrence of gas accident brings great threat to people's life and property.The gas safety entropy(GSE)model and gas accident risk factor index are built in this paper based on an analysis of 101 published reports of major gas safety accidents in China from 2011 to 2023.Furthermore,the safety entropy of the gas system is analyzed year by year using the entropy weight method,taking into account personal,physical,environmental,and management factors.The analysis results indicate that the weight of error operation factors is 3.5 times and 7 times greater than that of illegal operation and negative slack.The gas accident safety entropy presents a periodic change rule.The research results can provide objective and scientific theoretical support for the identification,risk assessment and safety management of urban gas safety in China.

关 键 词：燃气事故 燃气安全熵模型 熵权法 风险因素 案例分析。 

分 类 号：TE8[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]