全球中产阶级的变化及其对外影响  

Changing Global Middle Class:Dynamic and Impact

作　　者：俞新天[1] YU Xintian

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第1期1-22,176,共23页Global Review

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,全球中产阶级出现了许多新变化,其影响广泛而深刻。发达国家的中产阶级数量持续萎缩,经济和社会状况不断恶化。由此引发的对外影响是:保护主义取代自由开放,排外主义取代包容融合,政治右倾趋势加剧,进而使地缘政治更趋复杂。相反,发展中国家的中产阶级数量持续增长,在全球经济发展中发挥了更大作用,他们信心倍增。但是,快速现代化造成发展中国家中产阶级的多样性和复杂性,也使这一群体具有脆弱性。这推动了全球化、市场化及文化价值观的多元化。根据目前相对短暂的历史实践,全球中产阶级的对外影响将呈现三大趋势,一是发达国家与发展中国家中产阶级出现新的交集和相互认知的变化,既有趋同的前景,也面临冲突和矛盾。二是民族主义将成为中产阶级的主流意识形态,也将深刻影响各国的战略与政策制定,其正负效应并存。三是全球中产阶级在世界发展愿景上的看法出现分化,不仅各国国内存在不同观点,而且各国中产阶级之间的差异显著,短期内难以统一,需通过长期对话、交流与合作来寻求共识,以避免冲突与战争风险。Since the start of the 21st century,the global middle class has experienced significant changes that have had widespread and profound effects.In developed countries,the middle class has been steadily shrinking amid worsening economic and social conditions.This decline has led to a shift toward protectionism and xenophobia,intensifying a trend toward right-wing politics and complicating the geopolitical landscape.Conversely,the middle class in developing countries continues to grow,contributing more to the global economy and displaying considerable confidence.However,the rapid pace of modernization brings both diversity and complexity,making this segment vulnerable.These shifts have fostered globalization,marketization,and a diversification of cultural values.Based on relatively recent historical trends,the external influence of an expanding global middle class is likely to follow three major trends.First,there will be an increasing overlap between the middle classes of developed and developing countries,presenting both opportunities for cooperation and challenges for conflict.Second,nationalism is emerging as the dominant ideology among the middle class,driving national strategies and policy-making,with both positive and negative consequences.Third,there is a growing divergence in how the global middle class envisions the future.Domestic and international perspectives vary significantly across countries,making it difficult to reach a consensus in the short term.Long-term dialogue,communication,and cooperation will be essential for finding common ground and avoiding conflicts and risks of war.

关 键 词：中产阶级 发达国家 发展中国家 地缘政治 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学] D5[政治法律—政治学]