从冷战经验到大国竞争:美国的核战略与核威慑  

From Cold War to Great Power Competition:The U.S.Nuclear Strategy and Nuclear Deterrence

作　　者：葛汉文 GE Hanwen

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第1期65-86,178,179,共24页Global Review

基　　金：2022年度国家社科基金军事学重点项目(2022-SKJJ-B-105)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自核武器出现以来,其始终在国际政治演进中扮演着重要角色。作为世界上最大的有核国家,美国长期以来将威胁运用核武器作为重要的对外政策工具。冷战时期,美国核战略从“先发制人”核打击转变为核威慑。冷战结束后,在缺乏明确敌手的情况下,美国依旧将确保核优势作为政策核心,核威慑在其国家安全战略中的重要地位没有改变。进入21世纪第二个十年后,美国受到“霸权焦虑”的驱使,在大国竞争背景下大幅提升核武器的战略地位,推出“一体化威慑”,尤其是“核-常一体”概念,有意模糊核力量与常规力量之间的界限,进而降低核武器的运用门槛,试图将此作为“吓退”潜在或现实“挑战者”、赢得所谓“大国竞争”的重要条件。美国在未来一段时间内不会放弃核优势,反而会将其转化为实施国家战略的基本路线,这已经并将继续对全球战略稳定和地区安全构成严重冲击。历史经验显示,应对美国核威慑的关键在于通过构建“确保摧毁”能力来改变其政策意图,如此才能有效降低核冲突风险,最终实现有核国家间的“确保合作”。Since their advent,nuclear weapons have played a pivotal role in the evolution of international politics.As one of the world’s foremost nuclear powers,the United States has long relied on the threat of nuclear use as a key instrument of its foreign policy.During the Cold War,U.S.nuclear strategy shifted from an emphasis on“preemptive”nuclear strikes to a policy centered on nuclear deterrence.Following the Cold War’s conclusion and the absence of a clear adversary,the United States continued to prioritize nuclear superiority as the core of its strategic policy,maintaining the centrality of nuclear deterrence in its national security framework.Entering the second decade of the 21st century,driven by“hegemonic anxiety”amid intensifying great power competition,the United States has elevated the strategic significance of nuclear weapons.It has introduced the concept of“integrated deterrence,”particularly the notion of“conventional-nuclear integration,”which deliberately blurs the line between nuclear and conventional forces,lowering the threshold for nuclear use.This approach seeks to“deter”both potential and actual challengers while securing an upper hand in the ongoing competition among great powers.For the foreseeable future,the United States is unlikely to abandon its policy of maintaining nuclear superiority and leveraging it as a central tool of national strategy.This trajectory poses significant challenges to global strategic stability and regional security.Historical experience suggests that countering U.S.nuclear deterrence requires constructing“assured destruction”capabilities to alter its policy calculations.Only through such measures can the risks of nuclear conflict be effectively mitigated,ultimately fostering“assured cooperation”among nuclear-armed states.

关 键 词：美国 战略 核战略 核威慑 大国竞争 

分 类 号：E81[军事—战略学] D815[政治法律—国际关系]