新能源能否创造新政治:氢能的地缘政治影响  

Can New Energy Create New Politics?An Analysis of the Geopolitical Impact of Hydrogen

作　　者：张锐 ZHANG Rui

机构地区：[1]全球能源互联网发展合作组织,北京100031

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第1期87-109,179,共24页Global Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国深度参与全球能源转型的角色塑造与战略提升研究”(23BGJ036)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：氢能正逐步成为全球能源体系中的基础能源,其地缘政治影响日益显著。能源影响地缘政治的机制包括国际关系行为体的能源实力、能源贸易和能源输送三个方面,分别衍生出政治权力、依赖性关系和通道政治等地缘政治影响。在氢能领域,这种地缘政治影响主要表现为,推动大国通过技术竞争建构权力;氢能贸易有利于促进区域一体化,但也导致阵营政治的发展,并使进口国占据优势的关系失衡;氢能运输将开辟新通道,但也将延续各国对能源通道权的激烈竞争。相较于化石能源,氢能地缘政治具有新的特点:国家间的技术竞争逐渐取代资源争夺,能源合作的阵营政治化进一步加强,进口国相较于出口国获得更多结构性优势。随着技术突破和产业普及,围绕氢能的地缘政治博弈将愈加激烈。中国需要从产业经济和地缘政治的角度提前对外布局,牢筑新能源政治的实力基础与合作网络。Hydrogen is becoming a basic energy source and its geopolitical impact is increasingly remarkable.The mechanism by which energy affects geopolitics from the theoretical perspective,i.e.,the energy strength,energy trade and energy transportation of international relations actors respectively derive political power,mutual dependence,and channel politics at the geopolitical level.The geopolitical impacts of hydrogen energy include three aspects.Firstly,major powers are prompted to build power through technological competition.Secondly,hydrogen trade is conducive to promoting regional integration,but it consolidates alliance politics and leads to imbalanced relations in which importing countries dominate.Thirdly,hydrogen transportation will open up new channels,but fierce competition among countries for energy channel will also continue.Compared with fossil fuels,hydrogen energy can create a series of new geopolitical effects.In other words,technological competition among countries will largely replace the competition for resources,the potential for energy cooperation to transcend bloc politics has fallen sharply,and importing countries enjoy more structural advantages than exporting countries.China needs to formulate strategies from the perspectives of industrial economics and geopolitics to consolidate the strength foundation and cooperation network of new energy geopolitics.

关 键 词：氢能 地缘政治 能源转型 依赖性关系 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]