集体记忆、战略自主与东南亚国家的对冲延续——基于菲律宾、越南和印度尼西亚的比较分析  

Collective Memory,Strategic Autonomy,and the Continuation of Hedging of Southeast Asia Countries:A Comparative Analysis of the Philippines,Vietnam,and Indonesia

作　　者：陈菲 杨季宁 CHEN Fei;YANG Jining

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学政治与国际关系学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第1期152-175,181,182,共26页Global Review

摘　　要：对冲是东南亚国家在高度复杂且不确定的战略环境中平衡风险与机遇的战略手段。随着中国的进一步崛起和中美竞争的加剧,东南亚国家的战略环境逐渐由包容性转向约束性,其对冲空间正在缩小。然而,与结构现实主义的理论预设相悖,东南亚各国在应对体系压力时的战略选择具有显著的差异性。从新古典现实主义视角来看,研究东南亚国家的对冲延续因果机制需将战略环境和国内政治特性相结合。通过比较分析菲律宾、越南和印尼这三个国家的国内政治特性和对冲战略的变化轨迹,可以验证:在国内政治层面,集体记忆和战略自主两个变量决定了东南亚国家对外来威胁的预期和对冲能力。这些国家对于中、美的威胁预期是否对称是它们采取对冲战略的直接动因,而对冲能力的强弱则支持或阻碍了对冲在实践层面的延续。研究提供的解释框架有助于中国更准确地研判东南亚国家的战略动向,推动双方良性互动。Hedging is a strategic tool for Southeast Asian countries to balance risks and opportunities in a highly complex and uncertain strategic environment.With the continued rise of China and the intensifying competition between China and the United States,the hedging space for Southeast Asian countries is gradually shrinking.Contrary to the theoretical presupposition of Structural Realism,Southeast Asian countries did not uniformly abandon or continue hedging in unison in response to systemic pressures.Based on the theoretical perspective of neoclassical realism,the continuation of hedging strategies in Southeast Asian countries depends on the nature of the strategic environment and the characteristics of domestic politics.At the domestic political level,collective memory and strategic autonomy determine the perception of threats and the hedging capacity of Southeast Asian countries.The analysis reveals that the symmetry of Southeast Asian countries’threat perceptions vis-à-vis China and the United States directly determines whether they have incentives to continue their hedging strategies,while the strength of their hedging capacity supports or hinders the continuation of hedging in practice.By tracing the domestic characteristics and trajectory of hedging strategies in three Southeast Asian countries(the Philippines,Vietnam and Indonesia),the continuation logic of hedging in Southeast Asia is largely validated.

关 键 词：东南亚 对冲战略 新古典现实主义 集体记忆 战略自主 

分 类 号：E81[军事—战略学] D815[政治法律—国际关系]