以制度创新破解城投债的多重博弈困境  

Research on the Dilemma of Urban Investment Bonds under Multiple Game Scenarios

作　　者：李明炎 王浦劬[1] LI Ming-yan;WANG Pu-qu

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2024年第12期173-189,共17页Scientific Decision Making

摘　　要：城投债对中国城市的快速发展起到了积极促进作用,但是部分债务难以偿还的风险也引起了诸多担忧。本文基于对L市深度调研所获得的债务数据、访谈资料与一般性行政公文,结合博弈分析方法,深入剖析其城投债运行的困境及原因。研究发现,地方政府在举债、用债、化债过程中存在两个层次不同利益主体之间的多重复杂博弈关系:第一层次是以地方政府为利益主体,在中央-地方-金融机构间展开,第二层次则以地方为平台,在地方政府城投平台-地方政府职能部门与下级县区政府之间展开。在这两个层次的博弈中,不同主体具有各自不同的利益诉求、动力机制和策略选择,从而形成了城投债的困境。据此,建议从制度创新的角度,尤其从地方财政体制、产业发展激励机制、党组织协调与监督机制创新出发,破解城投债多重博弈困境,使地方经济发展迈向新阶段。Urban investment bonds have played a positive role in promoting the rapid development of Chinese cities,but the risk of some debts being difficult to repay has also raised many concerns.This article is based on debt data,interview materials,and general administrative documents obtained from in-depth research on L city,combined with game analysis methods,to deeply analyze the difficulties and reasons for the operation of its urban investment bonds.Research has found that there are two levels of complex game relationships between different stakeholders in the process of borrowing,using,and converting debt for local governments:the first level is based on the local government as the stakeholder and unfolds between the central local financial institutions,while the second level is based on the local government as the platform and unfolds between the local government’s urban investment platform,local government functional departments,and lower level county and district governments.In these two levels of game,different subjects have their own interests,driving mechanisms,and strategic choices,thus forming the dilemma of urban investment bonds.Based on this,it is suggested to start from the perspective of institutional innovation,especially from the innovation of local financial system,industrial development incentive mechanism,party organization coordination and supervision mechanism,to solve the multiple game dilemma of urban investment and debt,and to promote local economic development to a new stage.

关 键 词：央地关系 财政分权 城投债 城投公司 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]