考虑人口分布和天气影响的溃坝洪水应急避难选址研究  

Study on Emergency Shelter Location of Dam-Break Flood Considering Population Distribution and Weather Influence

作　　者：李巍 衣建妮[1] 葛巍 焦余铁[2] LI Wei;YI Jianni;GE Wei;JIAO Yutie(Henan Rail Transit Intelligent Safety Engineering Technology Research Center,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省轨道交通智能安全工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第1期154-160,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079127,52179144,U2040224,51234567);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2023M731259);河南省自然科学基金资助项目(232300421067);河南省高校科技创新人才计划项目(22HASTIT011)。

摘　　要：针对现有选址研究对人口分布差异考虑不充分,以及选址方案难以满足溃坝洪水灾害发生时人口避难需求的问题,可利用土地类型和夜间灯光遥感数据进行人口分布模拟,结合溃坝洪水模拟结果确定受灾人数及分布情况,在筛选合格候选避难场所的基础上,分析量化其在正常天气和极端降雨天气下的有效容量和可达性信息;综合考虑人口转移效率、建设成本、避难场所容量限制等因素构建多目标选址模型,利用NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解得到最终的选址方案。将该方法应用于安徽省合肥市大房郢水库溃坝避难模拟,结果表明:下游35个街道的人口模拟整体平均相对误差为11.16%,拟合精度较高,可真实反映人口的分布情况;正常天气情景筛选得到合格的候选避难场所数量为352个,极端降雨天气下保留的避难场所数量为266个。人口分布和天气因素对避难场所的选择有显著影响。Due to the insufficient consideration of population distribution differences in existing site selection research,as well as the difficulty in meeting the needs of population refuge under the condition of dam-break floods,the site selection plan is insufficient.The population distribution was simulated by using land-use and land-cover change(LUCC) and nighttime light data,and the number and distribution of the affected population were determined based on the simulation results of dam-break floods.On the basis of screening qualified candidate shelters,the effective capacity and accessibility information under normal weather and extreme rainfall conditions were analyzed and quantified.A multi-objective site selection model was built by comprehensively considering factors such as population transfer efficiency,construction cost and capacity limitations of shelters.The NSGA-II algorithm was used to solve the final site selection plan.The method was applied to the Dafangying Reservoir in Hefei City,Anhui Province.The results show that the overall average relative error(MRE) of population simulation for 35 downstream streets is 11.16%,which has high fitting precision and can truly reflect the distribution of population.The number of qualified refuge candidate shelters screened under normal weather scenarios is 352,and the number of refuge sites retained under extreme rainfall weather is 266.Population distribution and weather factors have significant effects on the choice of refuge.The population distribution and weather factors have a significant impact on the selection of shelters and the allocation of evacuees.

关 键 词：溃坝洪水 人口分布 天气因素 应急转移 避难选址 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]