基于水资源配置模型的供水安全韧性评价:以北京市为例  

Evaluation of water supply safety resilience under the perspective of water supply risk:A case study of Beijing

作　　者：王利 贺华翔[3] 游进军[3] 任政[1,2] 薛志春 WANG Li;HE Huaxiang;YOU Jinjun;REN Zheng;XUE Zhichun(College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [4]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第11期62-75,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000204);国家自然科学基金项目(52079143)。

摘　　要：【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,人类活动加剧引发城市供水风险增加,尤其是特大型城市供水安全面临巨大挑战。为评估特大城市在供水风险事件中可能受到的影响以及承受风险的能力【方法】通过解析供水安全韧性内涵,选取风险率、可恢复性、稳定性和脆弱性作为评价指标,以模糊综合评价法评价供水安全韧性;以北京市为例,通过分析城市供水安全涉及的风险场景,设置了三种供水风险组合情景;采用ROWAS水资源调配模型,模拟各情景的缺水方案,评价北京市整体及各区域的供水安全韧性。【结果】研究结果表明:(1)各情景下区域供水安全韧性的空间差异性较大;(2)通过各情景对比分析,识别了与水源保障范围相匹配的供水薄弱区域,为提高局部区域供水保障能力指明了方向;(3)在最不利情景(情景3)下,北京市整体供水安全韧性水平较低,评价值仅为0.116,与情景1相比下降68.8%,与情景2相比下降12.5%,进一步说明外调水对北京市供水系统的重要性。【结论】该方法通过情景模拟,有助于识别特大城市各区域在应对供水风险事件中存在的区域短板,为提升城市供水安全保障能力、风险管理的超前决策水平提供技术支撑。[Objective]In the context of global climate change,the intensification of human activities has caused increased urban water supply risks,especially the water supply safety of large cities is facing huge challenges.In order to evaluate the influence that the large cities may be affected and the ability to withstand risks in the risk of water supply,[Methods]this article analyzes the connotation of water supply safety resilience,selects risk,recovery,stability,and vulnerability as an evaluation indicator,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method evaluate water supply safety resilience;take Beijing as an example to analyze the risk scenario involved in urban water supply safety,set up a combination of three types of water supply risk scenarios;use the ROWAS water resource allocation model to simulate the water shortage plan of each scenario,evaluate water supply safety resilience in Beijing Overall and various regions.[Results]The research result show that:(1)The spatial of water supply safety resilience in various scenarios is relatively large;(2)By comparative analysis of various scenarios,a weak area of water supply matched with the scope of water supply protection is identified to improve water supply guarantee for local areas to improve local area water supply guarantees,the ability points the direction;(3)Under the most unfavorable scenario(scenario 3),the overall water supply safety resilience level in Beijing is low,with an evaluation value of only 0.116,a decrease of 68.8%compared with Scenic 1,and a decrease of 12.5%compared with Scenic 2.Further explains the importance of water transfer to Beijing′s water supply system.[Conclusion]Through scenario simulation,this method helps to identify the regional shortcomings of various regions in the large cities in response to the water supply risk incident,provide technical support for improving the ability of urban water supply safety and providing advanced decision-making levels that provide risk management.

关 键 词：供水安全韧性 供水风险情景组合 ROWAS模型 模糊综合评价 北京市 水资源 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]