黄河流域陕西段地质灾害空间分布特征及其对极端气温的响应  

Spatial distribution characteristics of geological hazards and their response to extreme temperatures in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：张士俊[1] 王宏宇 唐莉 ZHANG Shijun;WANG Hongyu;TANG Li(Shanxi Water Conservancy Vocational Technical College,Taiyuan 030032,Shanxi,China;Hubei Communications Planning and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430051,Hubei,China;Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030032,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西水利职业技术学院,山西太原030032 [2]湖北省交通规划设计院股份有限公司,湖北武汉430051 [3]太原理工大学,山西太原030032

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第12期54-65,共12页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42307261);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ211945)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究极端气温对黄河流域陕西段地质灾害的影响,提出有效的防灾减灾策略,具有重要的现实意义。【方法】依据1975—2020年黄河流域陕西段17个气象站的日气温资料,选择ETC-CDMI指标体系筛选极端气候事件,计算出20个极端气候指数,叠加黄河流域陕西段5521个地质灾害点数据,识别研究区地质灾害热点区及核密度,观察不同MinPts参数值下地质灾害点的聚类特征,分析研究区极端气温的空间变异,建立黄河流域陕西段地质灾害密度与极端气温的空间数据库,基于单因素相关系数及多因素灰色关联度,探讨极端气候与地质灾害的相关关系。【结果】结果显示:(1)研究区显著性水平达到90%的热点区域约0.71万km^(2),核密度区间介于322.68~2050.72,呈现聚集特征空间分布不均匀,主要分布在铜川市及西安—渭南中部;(2)小、中、大MinPts值下的聚集模式分别反映了微环境、区域性和更大空间尺度的影响;(3)研究区暖相关指数整体呈显著上升趋势,而冷相关指数呈显著下降趋势,研究区内总体气温显著升高;(4)北部和南部极端气温指标变化存在显著差异,北部霜冻天数多于南部,而南部生长季较长,研究区域内气候变化趋势与全球变暖的整体趋势一致,冷天数减少,暖天数和极端高温天数显著增加;(5)地质灾害核密度与多个极端气温指标呈正相关,其中TR10(R^(2)=0.314)相关性最强,指标如TX90P(R^(2)=0.310)则表现出负相关性;(6)核密度与极端气温指标的灰色关联系数均在0.74以上,尤其是TN90P、TX90P、TNn与TNx的关联系数达到显著性水平。【结论】黄河流域陕西段气候变化中不同气温指标对地质灾害有显著的促进或抑制作用,需综合考虑以应对地质灾害风险。[Objective]It is of great practical significance to study the impact of extreme temperature on geological disasters in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin and put forward effective strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.[Methods]Based on the daily temperature data of 17 meteorological stations in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 1975 to 2020,the ETCCDMI index system is used to filtrate extreme climate event and calculate 20 extreme climate indices.Then,overlaying the data of 5521 geological disaster points in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin,the geological disaster hotspots and kernel density in the study area can be identified.Then,the clustering characteristics of the geological disaster points under different MinPts parameter values are observed to analyze the spatial variation of extreme temperature in the study area,establish a spatial database of geological hazard density and extreme temperature in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin,and explore the correlation between extreme climate and geological disasters based on the single-factor correlation coefficient and multi-factor grey correlation degree.[Results]The result are shown as following:(1)The hotspot area whose significance level achieves 90% in the study area is about 7,100 km^(2),and the kernel density range is between 322.68~2050.72,showing uneven spatial distribution of aggregation characteristics,mainly distributed in Tongchuan City and the central part of Xi’an-Weinan.(2)The aggregation patterns under small,medium and large MinPts values reflect the effects of microenvironment,regionality and larger spatial scales,respectively.(3)The warm correlation index in the study area is ascending notably,while the cold-correlation index declining,with the overall temperature in the study area increasing significantly.(4)There is a significant difference between the northern and southern extreme temperature indicators change,with more frost days in the north than in the south,and gr

关 键 词：极端气候 地质灾害 多因素 灰色关联 黄河流域 气候变化 降雨 滑坡 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]