CESI和GeoSoS-FLUS方法的渭河流域生态敏感性时空特征及预测分析  

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Predictive Analysis of Ecological Sensitivity in the Weihe River Basin Using CESI and GeoSoS-FLUS Methods

作　　者：王文佳 王利[1] WANG Wen-jia;WANG Li(Liaoning Normal University,Dalian,Liaoning 116029)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2025年第1期51-56,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：[目的]评估渭河流域的生态敏感性,揭示人类活动对其生态系统的影响,并预测未来生态敏感性的变化。[方法]以渭河流域为研究区进行综合生态敏感性分析,选取景观生态风险敏感性指数、生物多样性敏感性指数、水土流失敏感性指数作为研究指标,构建综合生态敏感性指数(CESI)对渭河流域20年来的生态状况进行评价,并利用GeoSoS-FLUS进行模拟与预测。[结果]渭河流域2000—2020年生态敏感性变化较大,其中极度敏感的区域总面积整体呈下降趋势。渭河流域生态敏感性高的区域大多集中在西部、北部以及东部的小片区域。GeoSoS-FLUS模拟预测表明,2030年低敏感区和较低敏感区变化较小,且这些区域大多属于自然保护地带,距离人类活动区较远,变化不明显;中度、重度敏感区面积相比2020年有所减少,极度敏感区面积有所增加。[结论]20年间渭河流域的生态情况发生了很大改善。[Objective]To evaluate the ecological sensitivity of the Weihe River Basin,reveal the impact of human activities on its ecosystem,and predict future changes in ecological sensitivity.[Method]A comprehensive ecological sensitivity analysis was conducted in the Weihe River Basin,selecting landscape ecological risk sensitivity index,biodiversity sensitivity index and soil erosion sensitivity index as research indicators,a comprehensive ecological sensitivity index(CESI)was constructed to evaluate the ecological status of the Weihe River Basin over the past 20 years,and GeoSoS-FLUS were used for simulation and prediction.[Result]The ecological sensitivity of the Weihe River Basin had undergone significant changes from 2000 to 2020,with the total area of extremely sensitive areas was decreased.The areas with high ecological sensitivity in the Weihe River Basin were mostly concentrated in the west,north and small areas in east.The simulation and prediction of cellular automaton showed that the changes in low sensitivity areas and lower sensitivity areas will be relatively small by 2030,and most of these areas belong to nature reserves,which are far away from human activity areas and have not undergone significant changes;The area of moderately and severely sensitive areas may decrease compared to 2020,while the area of extremely sensitive areas may increase.[Conclusion]The ecological situation in the Weihe River Basin has greatly improved over the past 20 years.

关 键 词：生态敏感性 时空特征 CESI GeoSoS-FLUS 渭河流域 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]