基于全生命周期的轨道交通产业集群供应链碳排放测算与影响因素分析  

Carbon Emission Estimation and Influencing Factors Analysis of Supply Chain of Rail Transit Industry Clusters Based on Life Cycle

作　　者：杨颖 梁洁林 李佳霖 薛锋[1,2] YANG Ying;LIANG Jielin;LI Jialin;XUE Feng(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2025年第1期31-39,共9页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学基金项目(SCJJ24ND067);成都市软科学研究项目(2023-RK00-00166-ZF);四川省社会科学重点研究基地——系统科学与企业发展研究中心规划项目(Xq23C09)。

摘　　要：在“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的背景下,根据全生命周期理论,对轨道交通产业集群供应链全生命周期碳排放的边界进行界定,将轨道交通产业全生命周期划分为上中下游3个阶段。在此基础上,计算出四川省轨道交通产业集群供应链在2020年产生的碳排放总量为1149.63万t·CO_(2),引入Kaya等式,综合考虑碳排放强度、能源结构、能源强度等影响因素,使用LMDI分解法处理四川省轨道交通产业集群供应链2010—2020年的碳排放数据,结果表明:能源强度、经济产出和人口因素的影响大多为正效应,能源结构和产业结构大多为负效应且是最大的影响因素。从优化能源结构和能源强度、调整产业结构、建立碳排放监测与评估机制3个方面为助力轨道交通产业集群供应链的低碳转型提供对策建议。Against the backdrop of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the boundary of the carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters was defined based on the life cycle theory,and the life cycle of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters was divided into upstream,midstream,and downstream stages.On this basis,the total CO_(2)emissions of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters in Sichuan Province in 2020 were calculated to be 11.4963 million tons.The Kaya identity was introduced,and influencing factors such as carbon emission intensity,energy structure,and energy intensity were comprehensively considered.The LMDI decomposition method was used to process the carbon emission data of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2020.The results show that energy intensity,economic output,and population factors mostly have positive effects on total carbon emission,and energy intensity and industrial structure mostly have negative effects and are the biggest influencing factors.Therefore,the paper provides countermeasures and suggestions for supporting the low-carbon transition of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters from three aspects:optimizing the energy structure and energy intensity,adjusting the industrial structure,and establishing a carbon emission monitoring and evaluation mechanism.

关 键 词：轨道交通产业 集群供应链 全生命周期 碳排放测算 LMDI分解法 

分 类 号：U23[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]