碳交易机制下考虑需求不确定的多式联运路径优化  

Route Optimization of Multimodal Transport Considering Demand Uncertainty under Carbon Trading Mechanism

作　　者：段力伟 高慧艳 DUAN Liwei;GAO Huiyan(College of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2025年第1期40-52,共13页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18XJCZH001);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(61803057)。

摘　　要：为促进多式联运“降本减碳”及明确碳交易机制和不确定需求对多式联运路径选择的影响,构建了碳交易机制下考虑货运量不确定性的多式联运路径优化不确定机会约束规划模型,运用不确定理论转化为确定性模型,采用引入移民机制的遗传算法求解。通过算例探讨碳配额及分配方式、碳交易价格和不确定需求对货运企业联运方案、成本结构和碳排放量的综合影响。结果表明:碳交易机制有效引导货运企业选择低碳联运方式,减少碳排放18.4%;在低成本均衡场景中采用免费分配与80%及90%比例的混合分配方式时和高配额场景中采用3种分配方式时,企业能同时降低碳排放和总成本,实现经济与环境双赢;货运量不确定时,企业更偏好稳定且低碳的运输方式如铁路或铁水联运,并通过增加成本投入应对不确定风险。To promote the cost reduction and carbon mitigation and clarify the influence of the mechanism and uncertain demand on the choice of multimodal transport routes,this study constructed an uncertain chance-constrained programming model,which was transformed into a deterministic model based on the uncertainty theory and solved by a genetic algorithm incorporating the immigration mechanism,for the route optimization of multimodal transport considering freight uncertainty under carbon trading mechanism.Comprehensive influences of carbon quotas,allocation methods,carbon trading prices and uncertain demand on multimodal transport schemes,cost structure and carbon emission of freight enterprises were analyzed through numerical examples.Results show that the carbon trading mechanism effectively guides freight enterprises to adopt low-carbon options,reducing emissions by 18.4%.In scenarios featuring low-cost balanced quotas,including free allocation and mixed allocations of 80%and 90%,as well as high quota scenarios,enterprises can simultaneously reduce emissions and costs,achieving economic and environmental benefits.Under uncertain freight volumes,enterprises prefer stable and low-carbon options like rail or rail-water intermodal,and will increase investments to manage risks.

关 键 词：多式联运 路径优化 不确定需求 不确定机会约束规划 碳交易机制 

分 类 号：U15[交通运输工程]