不确定需求下冷藏集装箱低碳多式联运路径优化  

Route Optimization on Low-Carbon Multimodal Transport of Refrigerated Containers under Uncertain Demand

作　　者：苏航 李海军[1] SU Hang;LI Haijun(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2025年第1期61-69,共9页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(22ZY1QA005)。

摘　　要：优化冷藏集装箱多式联运路径对助力生鲜农产品运输实现降费增效具有重要作用,在既有研究的基础上,首先考虑不确定需求和碳排放的影响,引入三角模糊数表示不确定的运输需求,构建以广义物流成本最小为优化目标的路径优化模型,之后运用模糊机会约束规划理论实现模型清晰化,并对非线性项进行线性化处理,最后应用COPT7.0求解器实现模型求解,并进行案例求解、对比分析,以及碳税税率和置信水平的灵敏度分析。结果表明:冷藏集装箱多式联运可以降低生鲜农产品运输费用,提高运输效率;合理提高碳税税率可以有效促进“公转铁”,实现低碳运输;置信水平的提高有利于满足客户需求,但是由于运输能力和中转能力的限制,往往需要对运输方案进行改动,会导致运输总成本非线性增加。The route optimization of multimodal transport of refrigerated containers plays an important role in helping achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the transport of fresh agricultural products.Based on the existing studies,this paper first considered the influence of uncertain demand and carbon emissions and built a route optimization model with the triangular fuzzy number introduced to represent uncertain transport demand,whose goal is to reach the minimum generalized logistics cost.Then,this paper adopted the fuzzy chance constrained programming theory to clarify the model and linearized the nonlinear terms.Finally,the paper applied COPT7.0 solver to solve the model and conducted the case solution and the comparative analysis,as well as the sensitivity analysis of carbon tax rates and confidence level.The results show that the multimodal transport of refrigerated containers can reduce the cost of transporting fresh agricultural products and improve its efficiency.Reasonably raising carbon tax rates can effectively promote a shift in the shipping method from by road to by rail,which contributes to lowcarbon transport.The enhancement in confidence level is conducive to meeting customer demand.Nevertheless,it meanwhile results in a nonlinear increase in the total transport cost since it always involves an adjustment of the transport scheme,due to the limited transport and transit capacity.

关 键 词：冷藏集装箱 不确定需求 碳排放 多式联运 路径优化 

分 类 号：U295[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U15[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]