“双碳”目标下吉林省耕地利用碳排放效率测度及驱动因素分析  

Measurement and driving factors analysis of carbon emission efficiency of farmland in Jilin Province under the“dual carbon”goal

作　　者：邢艳春[1] 唐欣璐 潘幸路 崔佳琪 XING Yan-chun;TANG Xin-lu;PAN Xing-lu;CUI Jia-qi(School of Statistics,JiLin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学统计学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期55-64,共10页Journal of Jilin Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：吉林省教育厅社会科学研究项目(JJKH20240196SK);吉林财经大学一般项目(2023YB018)。

摘　　要：基于碳源与碳汇双重视角,采用含非期望产出的全局SBM模型测算2010—2022年吉林省9个地级市农业耕地利用碳排放效率,并借助全局莫兰指数、Kernel密度估计、基尼系数及泰尔指数考察其空间分布与时空演变,最后通过地理探测器模型探讨了吉林省耕地利用碳排放效率的驱动因素,旨在为推动吉林省“双碳”目标的实现提供启示.结果表明:整体上,吉林省9个地级市平均耕地碳排放效率随年份增加呈现出先增后减再增趋势,且后期增长趋势显著;空间上,地区存在集聚效应,主要集中在中部地区发展;省域上,呈现两极分化局势较明显,但地区差距减小,耕地利用碳排放效率水平趋于平均;从地理探测器结果看,产业结构高级化为主要驱动因子,其作用强度呈增长趋势;大多数交互探测因子决定力水平都有提高,对效率的影响显著,并发现加入城镇化率或农民收入水平的交互因子对吉林省耕地碳排放效率空间分布差异起主要影响作用.Based on the dual perspectives of carbon source and carbon sink,we use the global SBM model with non-expected output to estimate the carbon emission efficiency of agricultural land use in 9 prefecture-level cities in Jilin Province during 2010—2022,and investigate its spatial distribution and spatial-temporal evolution with the help of the global Moran index,Kernel density estimation,Gini coefficient and Theil index.Finally,the driving factors of carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use in Jilin Province were discussed through the geographical detector model,aiming to provide the inspiration for promoting the realization of“dual carbon”goal in Jilin Province.The results showed that the average carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land in 9 prefecture-level cities of Jilin Province increased first,then decreased and then increased with the increase of year,and the increase trend was significant in the later period.In terms of space,there is a regional agglomeration effect,mainly concentrated in the central region.At the provincial level,the two-level differentiation was obvious,but the regional disparity was reduced,and the carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use tended to be average.According to the results of geographical detector,the industrial structure is the main driving factor,and its effect intensity is increasing.Most of the interaction detection factors had a significant impact on the efficiency,and it was found that the interaction factors of urbanization rate or farmers income level played a major role in the spatial distribution difference of cultivated land carbon emission efficiency in Jilin Province.

关 键 词：碳排放效率 耕地利用 非期望产出SBM 驱动因素 

分 类 号：O223[理学—运筹学与控制论] F49[理学—数学] F323[经济管理—产业经济]