2015年以来日美同盟的台海遏制战略  

An Analysis on the Containment Strategy of the Japan-U.S.Alliance in the Chinese Taiwan Strait Since 2015

作　　者：张杨 ZHANG Yang(Party School of the Dong Cheng District of CPC;China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

机构地区：[1]中共北京市东城区委党校 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院,北京100010

出　　处：《边界与海洋研究》2024年第6期73-92,共20页Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies

摘　　要：2015年《日美防卫合作指针》发布以来,日美同盟实施台海战略的顶层逻辑逐渐从“威慑”转向“遏制”。台海遏制战略以乔治·凯南的遏制理论为基础,综合运用政治、军事、经济等各领域手段,达到利用台湾问题阻止中国和平崛起的目标,体现为多维性、极限性、集团性三大特征。然而,在当前大国融合性博弈逻辑下,这一战略不可避免地面临内部差异、谋势不足、合力受限等逻辑困境。该战略产生了阻碍海峡两岸和平统一、加剧战争风险以及破坏涉台国际环境等多重影响。为此,中国应当立足于百年变局与中华民族伟大复兴全局之大势,综合施策、全面应对。Since the publish of the“Guidelines for Japan-U.S.Defense Cooperation”in 2015,the top-level logic of the implementation of the Chinese Taiwan Strait strategy by the Japan-U.S.alliance has gradually evolved from“deterrence”to“containment”.The containment strategy in the Taiwan Strait is based on George Kennan's containment theory and utilizes various measures in the political,military,economic domains,to achieve the goal of using the Taiwan question to“standing in the path”to prevent the challenges from the development and rise of China.It is specifically characterized by three points including multi-dimensionalness,extremeness,and groupness.However,under the logic of the current integrativeness game among major powers,the containment strategy in the Taiwan Strait inevitably faces logical dilemmas such as internal differences,insufficient scheming potential,and limited synergy.This strategy has been resulting multiple impacts including:prevent the peaceful reunification of the two sides across the Taiwan Straits,heighten the risk of war and destroy the international environment related on Taiwan question.Therefore,China should base itself on the overall trend of profound changes unseen in a century and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation to adopt comprehensive and coordinated measures to respond.

关 键 词：日美同盟 遏制战略 台海战略 台湾问题 融合性博弈 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]