厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对10月海南省热带气旋活动的影响分析  

Effects of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity in Hainan Province in October

作　　者：杜吉净 吴慧[2,3] DU Jijing;WU Hui(Ding’an County Meteorological Bureau,Ding’an,Hainan 571200,China;Hainan Climate Center,Haikou,Hainan 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou,Hainan 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省定安县气象局,海南定安571200 [2]海南省气候中心,海南海口570203 [3]南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2024年第11期111-116,共6页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.U21A6001);海南省气象局科研项目(No.HNQXSX202216)。

摘　　要：为了深入认识赤道中东太平洋海温对10月海南省热带气旋(tropical cyclone, TC)活动的影响,利用1981-2020年的TC资料对不同厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)循环背景下10月影响海南省的TC频数、生成源地和路径的特征和差异进行了分析。结果表明,10月影响海南省的TC受ENSO影响最大。冷(暖)事件年影响海南省的TC频数比中性年偏多(少),影响TC的生成源地位置偏西(东),冷事件年西北太平洋影响海南省的TC西行路径增多、转向路径和西北行路径减少,暖事件年转向路径增多而西北行路径减少。这与10月赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常影响沃克环流的强度和位置,从而影响南海和西北太平洋TC的生成频数和生成位置有关,海温异常还可能通过影响东亚中层环境场的异常分布使西北太平洋TC路径改变,从而使影响海南省的TC频数发生改变。To understand the influence of equatorial Middle East Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)on tropical cyclone(TC)activity in Hainan Province in October,TC data from 1981 to 2020 were used to analyze the characteristics and differ-ences in TC frequency,generation sources and paths affecting Hainan Province in October under different ENSO cycle back-grounds.The results revealed that the TC affecting Hainan Province in October was most affected by ENSO.The frequency of TCs in cold(warm)event years affecting Hainan Province is more(less)than that in neutral years,and the location of the TC generation source is more(east).In cold event years,the northwest Pacific Ocean affects the westbound path of TC in Hainan Province,and the turning path and northwest path decrease;in warm event years,the turning path increases,and the northwest path decreases.This is related to the fact that the SST anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific in October affected the intensity and location of the Walker circulation,thus affecting the TC generation frequency and location in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean.The SST anomaly may also change the TC path in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by affecting the abnormal distribution of the middle environmental field in East Asia,thus changing the TC frequency affecting Hainan Province.

关 键 词：ENSO 10月 海南省 热带气旋活动 TC频数 

分 类 号：S164[农业科学—农业气象学]