考虑模型结构不确定性的面平均降水动态系统响应曲线实时校正方法  

A real-time correction method for dynamic system differential response with consideration of uncertainty in model structure

作　　者：张旭旻 瞿思敏[3,4] 陈颖冰 孙逸群[3] 石朋[3,4,5] 李永坤 卢亚静 周星 薛志春 ZHANG Xumin;QU Simin;CHEN Yingbing;SUN Yiqun;SHI Peng;LI Yongkun;LU Yajing;ZHOU Xing;XUE Zhichun(Beijing Water Science&Technology Institute,Beijing,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China;The Experimental Teaching Center of Water Resources of Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China;The Experimental Teaching Center of Water Conservancy Projects of Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京 [2]城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 [4]河海大学水利学科专业实验教学中心,江苏南京 [5]河海大学水利工程实验教学中心,江苏南京

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2024年第6期904-916,共13页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179011);浙江省水利厅科技资助项目(RA1903,RC1958,RB1926);北京市科技计划课题资助项目(Z231100003823005,Z201100008220005)。

摘　　要：水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入量的变化量之间的数学关系,结合经典概率论,提出了能够分辨模型结构不确定性来源的考虑模型结构不确定性的动态系统响应曲线校正方法(dynamic system response curve method considering the model structure uncertainty,UNDSRC).将该方法应用于大坡岭流域与富水流域检验UNDSRC方法的综合表现,并与DSRC方法进行比较.研究表明:1)在实际流域检验中,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更好的校正效果,校正效果评价系数分别为0.82与0.60;2)DSRC方法在2个实际流域均可以对新安江模型进行有效校正,且校正效果相似;3)UNDSRC方法校正效果优异且稳定,能够适应更复杂的流域下垫面情况,方法对洪峰流量的校正优于对径流深的校正;4)校正精度相同的情况下,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更小的岭系数.Structural uncertainty in hydrological models is an important factor affecting accuracy of hydrological forecasting.To quantify and reduce such effect is a hotly researched area.Dynamic system response curve(DSRC)method was used to deduce mathematical relationship between model structural errors and changes in input,and to propose a dynamic system response curve method with consideration of model structural uncertainty(UNDSRC),to distinguish source of model structural uncertainty.This method was applied to Dapoling and Fushui watersheds,for a test of comprehensive performance of UNDSRC algorithm and for comparison with DSRC algorithm.UNDSRC algorithm was found to perform better than DSRC algorithm in actual basin tests,with average correction effect evaluation coefficient of 0.82(UNDSRC)and 0.60(DSRC)respectively.Xinanjiang model data were effectively corrected by DSRC method in the two watersheds,with similar correction effects.UNDSRC algorithm is excellent and stable and can adapt to more complex surface conditions,the algorithm corrects flood peak better than runoff depth.With identical correction accuracy,ridge coefficient of UNDSRC method is much smaller than DSRC method.

关 键 词：动态系统响应曲线 模型结构不确定性 误差校正 岭回归 新安江模型 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]