未来气候情景下鄱阳湖流域生态水文情势演变  

Ecohydrological Regime Changes in Poyang Lake Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：刘雅坤 曾思栋 阳林翰 樊迪 刘欣 李淼[3] LIU Yakun;ZENG Sidong;YANG Linhan;FAN Di;LIU Xin;LI Miao(Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology,Chinese Academic of Sciences,Chongqing 400714,P.R.China;Chongqing School,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chongqing 400714,P.R.China;Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院,重庆400714 [2]中国科学院大学重庆学院,重庆400714 [3]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水生态学杂志》2025年第1期58-69,共12页Journal of Hydroecology

基　　金：中国科学院青年创新促进会资助项目(2021385);重庆市博士后科学基金项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-BHX0233);重庆市水利科技项目(CQSLK-2023014)。

摘　　要：为了探究气候变化影响下鄱阳湖流域水文情势的演变规律,利用未来气候模式数据驱动分布式时变增益水文模型,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验及生态水文指标变化范围法(IHA-RVA),分析了鄱阳湖流域未来情景下径流量、极值流量、脉冲变比等生态水文指标的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域未来径流量呈增长趋势,增幅在18.5%~30.3%,SSP5-8.5情景下增幅最高;(2)丰水期(3—8月)月均流量的增长较枯水期(9月—翌年2月)更明显,5—9月径流量增长率达到20%,最大年极值发生时间将提前1.0~17.8 d;(3)气候变化下鄱阳湖流域整体水文情势呈低度改变,虬津站和虎山站分别是整体水文改变度最高和最低的站点,其改变度分别为21.2和19.2。但月均流量(Ⅰ)、年极值流量(Ⅱ)与流量变化(Ⅴ)组分指标的改变度相对较高,平均为22.8。研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域生态水文情势预测提供数据支撑。In this study,we explored how the hydrological regime in Poyang Lake basin might change un-der the influence of climate change,focusing on runoff trends,extreme flows and pulse ratios.We aimed to provide a scientific basis for ecohydrological management and protection of the basin and enhance resilience to climate change.To begin,we constructed a distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM)to simulate runoff in the Poyang Lake basin,based on daily runoff data recorded at four hydrological stations(Waizhou,Lijiadu,Meigang,Dufengkeng Stations).Data from 1980-2003 was used for calibration and da-ta from 2004-2016 was used for validation.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients(NSE)were in the range of 0.72-0.84 for the calibration period and 0.65-0.82 for the validation period,indicating the reliabil-ity of the DTVGM model.Runoff was then simulated in the Poyang Lake basin for the period 2020-2100 using four climate scenarios of SSPs-RCPs combinations(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).Combining the Mann-Kendall trend test and eco-hydrological index range method(IHA-RVA),we quan-titatively assessed and analyzed the change degree of eco-hydrological indicators at seven stations in Poyang Lake basin under the four climate scenarios.Results show that:(1)Future runoff in the Poyang Lake basin shows an increasing trend,with an increase range of 18.5%-30.3%,and the increase under the scenario of SSP5-8.5 is the highest.(2)The increase of monthly average runoff in wet season(March to August)is more obvious than in dry season(September to the following February).The increase in runoff reaches 20%from May to September,and the maximum annual extreme runoff will occur 1.0 to 17.8 days sooner than at present.(3)Under the climate change scenarios,the overall hydrology of Poyang Lake basin will change only slightly,and the highest change degree occurs at the Qiujin Station(21.2)and the lowest change degree occurs at Hushan Station(19.2).However,the changes in the compo-nent indices for monthly average flow(I),annual extreme flo

关 键 词：气候变化 生态水文情势 水文改变度 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：Q143[生物学—生态学]