山洪灾害临近预报预警技术及实践应用  

Technology and practical application of nowcasting and early warning for flash flood disasters

作　　者：吴泽斌 田济扬[1,2] 刘荣华 孙朝兴[1,2] WU Zebin;TIAN Jiyang;LIU Ronghua;SUN Chaoxing(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Engineering and Technology Research Center for Flood Control,Drought Mitigation and Disaster Reduction(Flood and Drought Disaster Defense Center),Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第12期41-45,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：山洪灾害临近预报预警是多阶段递进式山洪灾害监测预报预警体系的重要组成部分,是国家层面开展山洪灾害防御工作的主要技术手段。水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心)研发并改进了临近预报预警模型,依托国家山洪灾害监测预报预警平台及时发布临近预报预警,为国家层面第一时间掌握全国山洪灾害态势、督促指导地方做好山洪灾害防御工作提供了有力支撑。研究总结2024年国家层面开展的山洪灾害预报预警工作,介绍山洪灾害预报预警技术方法和2024年汛期的应用效果,分析存在的问题,提出了下一步提升山洪灾害临近预报预警的措施建议。Nowcasting and early warning of flash floods is an important part of the multi-stage progressive flash flood monitoring,forecasting and early warning system,and it is the main technical means to carry out flash flood defense work at the national level.The Disaster Reduction Center(Flood and Drought Defense Center)of the Ministry of Water Resources has developed and improved the nowcasting and warning model,and timely issued nowcast and warning relying on the national flash flood monitoring,forecasting and warning platform,which provides strong support for the national level to grasp the national flash flood disaster situation in the first time,and to supervise and guide the local governments to do a good job in flash flood disaster defense work.The study summarizes the work of flash flood disaster forecasting and early warning at the national level in 2024,introduces the technical methods of flash flood disaster forecasting and early warning and the application effect during the flood season of 2024,analyzes the existing problems,and puts forward the next steps to enhance the measures of flash flood disaster nowcasting and early warning.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 气象风险预警 临近预报预警 2024年 

分 类 号：P338.1[天文地球—水文科学] TV87[水利工程—水文学及水资源]