现代化水库矩阵管理下的水库防洪“四预”实践——以江苏宜兴市横山水库为例  

FEDE application for flood management under modern matrix management in reservoirs--A case study in Hengshan Reservoir of Yixing City,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：林文青 王帆[1,2] 鲍春飞 王玮琦 张大伟 房展超[4] 沈乃政 毕吴瑕 LIN Wenqing;WANG Fan;BAO Chunfei;WANG Weiqi;ZHANG Dawei;FANG Zhanchao;SHEN Naizheng;BI Wuxia(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Prevention and Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038;Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.,Ltd.,Zibo 255086;Yixing Water Conservancy Bureau,Wuxi 214200)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038 [3]智洋创新科技股份有限公司,淄博255086 [4]宜兴市水利局,无锡214200

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第12期73-79,共7页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005501);中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(JZ110145B0062024)。

摘　　要：对标水利部关于加快构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵中“四预”(预报、预警、预演、预案)工作相关要求,横山水库矩阵“四预”业务模块通过整合雨水情监测预报“三道防线”数据,集成预报调度一体化模型、二维地表水动力模型等水利专业模型,实现洪水预报精准化、预警提前化、预演数字化和预案科学化。基于“四预”模块,开展了水库入库洪水预报验证和水库下游洪水演进情景分析。结果表明,所构建的预报调度一体化模型模拟结果与历史场次洪水过程拟合较好,模拟的两场洪水过程洪量相对误差分别为-10.1%、-8.1%,可为横山水库防洪调度提供科学依据;所构建的二维地表水动力模型可快速、精准获得各情景下水库下游洪水淹没范围、水深、流速、到达时间等关键数据,能够准确实时反映洪水动态变化情况,可有效支撑洪水防御工作。In accordance with the requirements of the Ministry of Water Resources to accelerate the construction of a modern reservoir operation management matrix of the FEDE(forecasting,early warning,drilling,and emergancy plan),the FEDE business module at Hengshan Reservoir management matrix consolidates data from the“three lines of defense”in rain-water monitoring and forecasting,integrates the integrated forecasting and dispatching model,and two-dimensional surface water dynamics model and other water sector professional models to achieve at enhancing forecasting precision,advancing early warning,digitalizing rehearsals,and ensuring scientifically emergency plan for the reservoir management.In this paper,the flood models in the FEDE module are used to carry out the verification of the reservoir inflow flood forecasting and the analysis of the reservoir downstream flood routing scenario.Results demonstrate that the integrated hydrological forecasting and dispatching model effectively fits historical flood events,with relative biases in flood volume of-10.1%and-8.1%for two specific flood events.Thie can provide a robust scientific basis for flood scheduling at Hengshan Reservoir.Furthermore,the two-dimensional surface hydrodynamic model can facilitate the rapid and precise generation of critical data on flood inundation extent,water depth,flow velocity,and arrival times across various scenarios.This model accurately reflects dynamic changes in flood conditions and significantly supports flood defense strategies.

关 键 词：水库矩阵管理 防洪“四预” 预报调度一体化 水动力模型 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]