基于标准化降水指数的江苏省59年旱涝演变特征  

Characteristics of drought and flood analyzed using standardized precipitation index in Jiangsu Province during past 59 years

作　　者：湛忠宇 刘美丽 朱永军[1] 李敏 ZHAN Zhongyu;LIU Meili;ZHU Yongjun;LI Min(Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Provincial Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Nanjing 210008;School of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南京分局,南京210008 [2]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,扬州225009

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第12期94-100,共7页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：近年来江苏省水旱灾害频繁发生,探讨旱涝时空变化特性对防汛抗旱减灾具有重要意义。基于江苏省21个气象站点1960—2018年的逐月降水数据,选用标准化降水指数表征气象干旱,分析了不同时间尺度下的江苏省旱涝频率、影响范围、强度等演变特征。结果表明:总体来看,江苏省春季、秋季趋于干旱,夏季、冬季趋于湿润,旱涝发生频率随着旱涝等级增加而降低;苏北地区旱涝发生频率最高,其次是江淮地区,苏南地区最低;春季、夏季、秋季干旱强度及影响范围均呈增加趋势,其他季节呈下降趋势,夏季、冬季雨涝强度及影响范围呈上升趋势。In recent years,frequent flood and drought disasters have occurred in Jiangsu Province.Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and floods is of great significance for flood prevention,drought resistance,and disaster reduction.This article is based on monthly precipitation data from 21 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1960 to 2018.The standardized precipitation index is used to characterize meteorological drought,and the evolution characteristics of drought and flood frequency,impact range,and intensity in Jiangsu Province at different time scales are analyzed.The results indicate that,Jiangsu Province tends to be dry in spring and autumn,and humid in summer and winter,with a decreasing frequency of occurrence as drought and flood levels increase;The frequency of droughts and floods is highest in the northern Jiangsu region,followed by the Changjiang-Huaihe region in Jiangsu province,and lowest in the southern Jiangsu region;The intensity and scope of drought in spring,summer,and autumn all show an increasing trend,while other seasons show a decreasing trend.The intensity and scope of rainfall and flood in summer and winter show an increasing trend.

关 键 词：干旱 雨涝 标准化降水指数(SPI) 江苏省 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]