危化品物流安全事故多主体致因的系统动力学仿真  

System Dynamics Simulation of Multi-Actor Causes of Hazardous Chemical Logistics Safety Accidents

作　　者：刘林[1] 李胜 朱国兴 LIU Lin;LI Sheng;ZHU Guoxing(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma′anshan 243032,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)》2024年第6期821-831,共11页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72304002);安徽省优秀青年教师重点项目(YQZD2023028)。

摘　　要：为防范和化解危化品物流重大风险,实现重大事故隐患动态清零,采用系统动力学方法定量分析我国危化品物流安全事故的复杂成因。基于对143份危化品物流安全事故调查报告的内容分析,从政府、企业、员工等多主体交互视角,解析危化品物流安全事故的关键致因和复杂形成机理。利用系统动力学模型进行仿真和灵敏度分析,模拟不同情境下危化品物流安全事故的动态演化规律,直观展示了关键致因因素的动态演化规律及其对安全事故的差异化影响。研究结果表明:员工违规操作和危化品不安全状态均是导致危化品物流安全事故发生的直接原因,政府监管责任落实不到位、企业主要负责人和部门负责人违法违规、企业安全教育培训缺失、企业安全管理水平较低、企业安全设施设备投入不足是导致危化品物流安全事故发生的间接原因。相比员工违规操作的严重程度,危化品不安全状态(尤其是受热受潮状态)水平对危化品物流安全事故严重程度的正向影响更大。其中,前者的影响率为0.431,后者的影响率为0.493。在所有间接原因中,提高企业安全管理水平(尤其是安全检查和隐患排查水平)对降低员工违规操作严重程度和危化品不安全状态水平的影响效果最优,对应影响率分别为-0.077和-0.128。To prevent and address the major risks associated with hazardous chemicals logistics and to achieve the dynamic elimination of significant accidents,the system dynamics method is employed to quantitatively analyze the complex causes of hazardous chemicals logistics safety accidents in China.Initially,based on an analysis of 143 investigation reports on hazardous chemicals logistics safety accidents,key causes and complex formation mechanisms of hazardous chemicals logistics safety accidents were analyzed from the perspective of interaction among governments,enterprises,and employees.Subsequently,a system dynamics model was used for simulation and sensitivity analysis to explore the dynamic evolution of safety accidents in different scenarios,and the evolving patterns of key causal factors and their varying impacts on safety accidents were visually displayed.The findings revealed that the direct causes of safety accidents are identified as safety violations by employees and the unsafe state of hazardous chemicals.Furthermore,critical indirect causes include insufficient government supervision,safety violations by top executives and department heads,lack of safety education and training,inadequate safety management,and insufficient investment in safety facilities by enterprises.Compared with the severity of safety violations by employees,the unsafe of hazardous chemicals(especially the state of heat and moisture)has a greater positive effect on the severity of safety accidents in hazardous chemicals logistics,in which the influence rates of the former is 0.431 and that of the latter is 0.493.Among all indirect causes,improving the safety management level of enterprises(especially the level of safety inspection and hidden danger investigation)has the best effect on reducing the severity of employees′illegal operation and the level of unsafe state of hazardous chemicals,with corresponding influence rates of-0.077 and-0.128,respectively.

关 键 词：危化品物流 事故致因 系统动力学 违规操作 不安全状态 

分 类 号：X928.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]