基于PSR模型的南渡江流域下游段生态安全评价  

Ecological Security Assessment of the Downstream of Nandu River Basin Based on PSR Model

作　　者：李美慧 韦玲艳 龚文峰 毛铭江 吴庚鸿 刘铁冬 LI Meihui;WEI Lingyan;GONG Wenfeng;MAO Mingjiang;WU Genghong;LIU Tiedong(School of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,Hainan,China;Intelligent Forestry Key Laboratory of Haikou City,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学热带农林学院,海南海口570228 [2]海南大学海口市智慧林业重点实验室,海南海口570228

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2025年第1期152-164,共13页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32360386);海南省自然科学基金(高层次人才项目)(621RC507);海口市智慧林业重点实验室(2020-057)。

摘　　要：南渡江流域下游段的人口数量快速增长和城镇化日趋加速使该区域生态安全遭受许多潜在的威胁,而以往结合多时空尺度自然环境-社会-经济等探究该区域生态安全及其演变特征的研究尚不多见。本研究耦合地理信息系统(GIS)和压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,选取20个指标构建生态安全评价体系,利用熵权法、综合指数法、障碍度诊断模型和莫兰指数等对2000、2010年和2020年南渡江流域下游段生态安全时空动态特征展开研究。结果表明:1)南渡江流域下游段年平均生态安全指数由2000年的0.4594上升到2020年的0.5424;低等级生态安全(Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级)在空间上由中南部向北部转移,且面积呈现萎缩趋势。2)2000—2020年以低等级向高等级生态安全转移为主,2个时间段均以Ⅲ级→Ⅳ级最为明显,变化面积分别为579.31 km^(2)和681.52 km^(2)。3)研究区生态安全具有强烈的空间自相关且分异特征明显,热点区域均以下游段西部的林草地为主,而冷点区域以建设用地和耕地为主且由中南部逐渐向北部聚集。4)影响区域生态安全的障碍因子已从早期的温度、粮食总产量和农作物播种面积等指标转变为旅游人数和人均GDP等指标,表明社会经济指标已转变为影响区域生态安全的主要影响因素。The rapid population growth and accelerating urbanization in the downstream of the Nandu River Basin have posed numerous potential threats to the ecological security of this region.However,there is a lack of comprehensive studies that have been conducted to explore the ecological security and its evolutionary characteristics in this region by integrating natural environment,society,and economy across various spatio-temporal scales.Therefore,an ecological security assessment system was constructed in this study,incorporating 20 indicators and utilizing geographic information system(GIS)and pressure-state-response(PSR)models.By employing the entropy weight method,comprehensive index method,obstacle degree diagnosis model,and Moran index,the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of ecological security in the downstream of the basin were investigated for 2000,2010,and 2020.The findings revealed that 1)the annual average ecological security index of the basin witnessed an increase from 0.4594 in 2000 to 0.5424 in 2020.The low-grade ecological security(ClassⅠandⅡ)had shifted spatially from the central-southern part to the northern part,and the area had shown a shrinking trend.2)The transition from low-grade to high-grade ecological security was the main trend from 2000 to 2020.The most prominent transition occurred between ClassⅢandⅣ,in which the change areas encompassed 579.31 and 681.52 km^(2),respectively.3)The ecological security of the study area had exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation and distinct spatial differentiation.Forest and grassland dominated as hotspots in the western part of the basin,while the cold spot area primarily comprised of areas designated for construction and cultivation,gradually accumulating from the southern central region towards the north.4)The factors hindering regional ecological security had shifted from early indicators such as temperature,total grain production,and crop sowing area to indicators like tourist numbers and per capita GDP.This shift indicates that socio-e

关 键 词：生态安全 PSR模型 障碍度 空间分异 南渡江流域 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]