菲律宾南海政策演变的理论阐释——兼论小马科斯政府南海政策及其演变发展  

A Theoretical Interpretation of the Evolution Logic of the Philippines'South China Sea Policy--On the Marcos Government's South China Sea Policy and Its Evolution

作　　者：徐梦盈 Xu Mengying(School of Marxism,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 51000,China;Institute for National Security and Development,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 51000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学马克思主义学院,广东广州510320 [2]广东财经大学国家安全与发展研究院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期25-41,共17页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“美国对华战略调整下的‘五眼联盟’转型与我国对策研究”(20AGJ005)。

摘　　要：在中美南海博弈不断升温的背景下,厘清菲律宾南海政策演变存在何种运作逻辑成为一个兼具理论和现实意义的问题。在修正新古典现实主义理论的基础上,以美菲同盟与中国间海洋实力对比态势为前置变量,以菲律宾国家决策者对南海安全局势的评估以及菲律宾获取美国战略援助的能力为单元层次自变量,构建解释菲律宾南海政策演变逻辑的跨层次分析框架。阿基诺三世政府和杜特尔特政府的菲律宾南海政策为这一理论框架提供了经验层面的证据。基于跨层次分析模型,预测小马科斯政府南海政策激进化的风险较高。对此,中国决策者可采取两种风险防范措施予以应对。In the context of the heated game between China and the United States in the South China Sea,clarifying the evolution logic of the Philippine South China Sea policy has become an issue of both theoretical and practical significance.Based on the revision of neoclassical realism,taking sea power situation between U.S.-Philippine alliance and China as a prior variable,and Philippines'national policymakers'assessments of the security situation in the South China Sea and the Philippines'abilities to obtain U.S.strategic assistance as a unit-level independent variable,the paper aims to construct a cross-level analysis framework that can analyze the evolution logic of the Philippines'South China Sea policy.The Aquino and Duterte governments'South China Sea policy are taken as cases to test this theoretical framework.On the basis of the theoretical model,the paper predicts that the Marcos government's South China Sea policy has a greater risk of evolving into a radical type.China's policymakers can respond with two risk-prevention measures.

关 键 词：新古典现实主义理论 菲律宾南海政策 美菲同盟 中菲南海争端 小马科斯政府 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]