1981~2021年南水北调中线工程安阳河以北段冬季冷暖变化特征分析  

Analysis of winter cold-warm changes in northern section of Anyang River of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project from 1981 to 2021

作　　者：李景刚 陈晓楠 孙德宇 任亚鹏 LI Jinggang;CHEN Xiaonan;SUN Deyu;REN Yapeng(China South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Corporation Limited,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南水北调集团中线有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2025年第1期19-25,共7页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202505);水利青年科技英才资助项目(JHYC202207)。

摘　　要：为更好地开展南水北调中线工程冰期输水调度,基于中线工程沿线8个国家气象站点的1981~2021年冬季日平均气温数据,采用气候平均值、气候倾向率等统计方法,并依据国家冷暖冬等级划分标准,在年度尺度上,对安阳河以北段近41 a来冬季冷暖变化气候特征进行了统计分析。结果表明:①1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温基本为-5~3℃,在空间上整体呈现南高北低的特征,南北温差基本为3~4℃。②1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温年际变化规律基本一致,整体上均呈现出波动上升的趋势,增温幅度为0.113~0.713℃/(10 a),整体表现为南北升温速率低,中部升温速率高的特点。③从年代际变化来看,1980年代各站冬季平均气温最低,多为偏冷年份,整体上1980,1990和2010年代表现为升温趋势,2010年代升温最为显著,而2000年代则表现为降温趋势。其中,在2000年代和2010年代,各站冬季平均气温波动频繁,且幅度较大,平均气温标准差均超过了1.0℃。④近41 a区域暖冬年共出现12次,主要在1990年代中期以后,区域冷冬年共出现18次,其中,1980年代最多,1990年代最少,自1990年代末期开始,区域冷冬年、暖冬年时常交替出现,而在2014年后,区域暖冬年明显偏多。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程优化冰期输水调度、提升冬季渠道过流能力提供参考。To better serve the water diversion scheduling of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during the ice period by revealing the characteristics of winter air temperature change,based on the winter daily mean air temperature data of 8 national weather stations along the project from 1981 to 2021,statistical methods such as climate normal and climate tendency rate were used,and according to the national cold winter and warm winter grade standards,the climate characteristics of winter cold-warm changes in the northern section of the Anyang River of the main channel were statistically analyzed on an annual scale.The results showed that:①From 1981 to 2021,the mean winter air temperature of each weather station was basically between-5℃to 3℃,which was generally high in the south and low in the north in space,and the air temperature difference between the north and the south was basically between 3℃to 4℃.②From 1981 to 2021,the inter-annual variation of mean winter air temperature at each weather station was basically the same,showing a fluctuating upward trend as a whole,with a temperature increase range of 0.113 to 0.713℃every 10 years,the overall warming rate was low in the north and south,and high in the middle.③From the perspective of inter-annual variation,the average winter temperature of each station in the 1980s was the lowest,and most of them were cold-winter years.On the whole,the 1980s,1990s and 2010s showed a warming trend,with the most significant warming in the 2010s and a cooling trend in the 2000s.Among them,in the 2000s and the 2010s,the average winter air temperature of each station fluctuated frequently and had a large amplitude,with the standard deviation of the average winter air temperature exceeding 1.0℃.④In recent 41 years,there were 12 regional warm winter years,mainly after the mid-1990s,and the regional cold winter years appeared a total of 18 times,of which there were the most in the 1980s,and the least in the 1990s.Since the end of the 1990s,the regiona

关 键 词：冷暖变化 冬季气候特征 冰期输水 南水北调中线工程 安阳河 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]