基于概率连通与关联矩阵的配电网可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Based on Probability Connectivity and Incidence Matrix

作　　者：韩俊 潘文婕 蔡超 樊安洁 陈皓菲 HAN Jun;PAN Wenjie;CAI Chao;FAN Anjie;CHEN Haofei(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,南京210008

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2025年第1期84-91,共8页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2022062)。

摘　　要：针对源荷多重不确定性导致故障后配电网转供裕度难以准确度量的问题,提出了考虑故障后网络安全约束概率越限风险的有源配电网可靠性评估方法。首先,采用拉丁超立方抽样法建立了分布式电源与负荷需求及其响应的不确定性模型;其次,提出了考虑故障后容量和电压概率越限风险的故障关联矩阵推导方法;再次,提出了基于正态分布概率特征的机会约束处理方法和非线性潮流转化方法;最后,采用解析法计算系统可靠性指标。In response to the difficulty in accurately measuring the post-fault resilience of distribution network due to un-certainties in both the source and load,a method for evaluating the reliability of active distribution network is proposed with the consideration of the probability over limit risk of post-fault network security constraints.First,the Latin hyper-cube sampling method is employed to establish uncertainty models for distributed generations,load demand and the cor-responding responses.Second,a method for deriving a fault incidence matrix considering the post-fault capacity and the risk of voltage probability over limit is introduced.Third,an approach to handle opportunity constraints based on the probability characteristics of normal distribution and a non-linear power flow transformation method are presented.Final-ly,the reliability indices for the system are calculated using an analytical method.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 配电网 概率越限 故障关联矩阵 不确定性 

分 类 号：TM761[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]