我国成品油需求达峰后的市场新特点  

New Market Characteristics Emerging After China's Refined Oil Demand Reaches its Peak

作　　者：王佩 张硕 Wang Pei;Zhang Shuo(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2024年第12期1-6,共6页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：“十四五”规划实施的前四年,受新冠疫情蔓延、国内新旧动能转换以及新能源汽车产销量迅猛增长等多重因素的影响,我国成品油需求经历了由增转降的关键性变化,成品油需求于2023年达到峰值。2024年,国内成品油行业逐步回归常态化发展,汽柴油需求呈现不同程度的下降。展望“十四五”末以及“十五五”时期,我国成品油市场的结构性和周期性特征将更加显著:一是国内需求整体达峰,未来需求或加速下行;二是炼油行业规模性扩张基本完成,增量市场转向存量博弈;三是资源过剩压力继续增长,传统油企面临严峻挑战。建议相关企业密切研判市场,提早做好应对预案,全方位加大转型力度,积极应对成品油达峰带来的挑战。In the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan,under the multiple influences of the spread of the COVID-19,the conversion of new and old drivers in China,the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and other factors,China's demand for refined oil has undergone a critical change from increase to decrease,and the demand for refined oil reached its peak in 2023.In 2024,the domestic refined oil industry gradually returns to normal development,and the demand for gasoline and diesel declines to varying degrees.Looking forward to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 15th Five-Year Plan stage,the structural and cyclical features of China's refined oil market are expected to become increasingly pronounced.Firstly,domestic demand is expected to peak overall,with potential for accelerated decline in future demand.Secondly,the substantial expansion of the refining industry has essentially been completed,shifting the focus from incremental market growth to competition within the existing market.Thirdly,the pressure from excess resources continues to mount,posing severe challenges to traditional oil companies.It is suggested that relevant enterprises should closely study and judge the market,make response plans in advance,increase the intensity of transformation in an all-round way,and actively respond to the changes brought about by the peak of refined oil.

关 键 词：成品油 达峰 供需 拐点 存量博弈 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]