基于分层Logistic回归模型的高速公路货车差异化收费策略  

Differentiated toll strategy of highway trucks based on hierarchical Logistic regression model

作　　者：刘钦 吉小进 张蓓 李根 韩宝睿[1] 黄海博 尹超英 王方旭 LIU Qin;JI Xiaojin;ZHANG Bei;LI Gen;HAN Baorui;HUANG Haibo;YIN Chaoying;WANG Fangxu(College of Automotive and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Beijing Bridata Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100102)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,南京210037 [2]北京明树数据科技有限公司,北京100102

出　　处：《智能计算机与应用》2025年第1期144-150,共7页Intelligent Computer and Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72204114)。

摘　　要：针对高速公路货车差异化收费,大多以经济效益为导向,忽视社会效益及路网整体通行效率的问题。本文以综合效益(经济效益、社会效益)最大化为目标,构建适用于多地区的含有不同地区路段类别因子的分层Logistic回归模型。基于甘肃和新疆差异化收费项目数据对模型进行标定,假设3种收费情景并制定多样化的收费策略,分析货车行驶不同距离高速公路的分担率变化情况;针对目标高速公路对费率变化进行敏感性分析。结果表明,新疆G0711和G0612高速公路在制定的3种差异化收费策略下,高速公路货车分担率分别提升了4.99%、14.01%、8.34%。Aiming at the problem that the differentiated toll collection of expressway trucks is mostly guided by economic benefits,ignoring social benefits and the overall traffic efficiency of the road network,this paper aims at maximizing the comprehensive benefits( economic benefits,social benefits),and constructs a hierarchical Logistic regression model suitable for multiple regions with different regional road section category factors.Based on the data of differentiated toll projects in Gansu and Xinjiang,the model is calibrated.Three charging scenarios are assumed and diversified charging strategies are formulated to analyze the change of sharing rate of trucks driving different distances from highways.The sensitivity analysis of the target highway to the rate change is carried out.The results show that the sharing rate of expressway trucks under the three differentiated charging strategies of Xinjiang G0711 and G0612 expressways has increased by 4.99 %,14.01 % and 8.34 % respectively.

关 键 词：差异化收费策略 分层Logistic回归 空间异质性 分担率 

分 类 号：U492[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]