阿汝冰崩-碎屑流运动过程反演及预测模拟研究  

Inversion and Prediction Simulation Study of AruIce Avalanche-debris Flow Movement Process

作　　者：李扬 汤明高[2] 帅奕垚 赵欢乐 李超瑞 倪文涛 李广 LI Yang;TANG Minggao;SHUAI Yiyao;ZHAO Huanle;LI Chaorui;NI Wentao;LI Guang(Sichuan Natural Resources Investigation and Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610051,China;State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省自然资源勘察设计集团有限公司,四川成都610051 [2]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2024年第6期1311-1322,共12页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41941019,42377199);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0201)资助。

摘　　要：冰崩作为冰冻圈最具灾难性的地质灾害之一,具有运动过程复杂、预测难度高、致灾后果严重等特点。2016年7月17日和9月21日在西藏阿里地区发生了两起巨型冰崩-碎屑流事件,对当地居民生命财产安全以及生态环境造成了严重危害,利用PFC~(3D)反演了这两次冰崩-碎屑流运动过程,在此基础上对周边区域潜在冰崩隐患进行了预测模拟研究。结果表明:(1)两次冰崩-碎屑流运动时间分别为300 s和240 s,颗粒平均速度峰值分别为32.05 m/s和34.80 m/s,第一次冰崩入湖体积约为8.47×10~6 m^(3);(2)前后部分的能量传递是冰崩-碎屑流产生高速远程运动的关键机制;(3)预测阿汝85号冰川(冰崩隐患)发生冰崩后形成的西北侧主堆积区面积约为1.1 km^(2),东北侧小堆积区面积约为0.3 km^(2),危险区面积共计3.28 km^(2);该成果对于青藏高原的冰崩防灾减灾工作具有一定科学价值和现实意义。As one of the most catastrophic geological disasters in the cryosphere,ice avalanche is char-acterized by complex movement process,high prediction difficulty,and severe consequences.On July 17 and September 21,2016,two massive ice avalanche-debris flow events occurred in Ali Prefecture,Tibet,causing significant harm to the life and property safety of local residents and the ecological envi-ronment.PFC3D was used to invert the movement processes of the two events,and based on this,po-tential ice avalanche hazards in the surrounding areas were simulated and predicted.The results showed that:(1)The movement durations of the two ice avalanche-debris flows were 300 s and 240 s,with peak average particle velocities of 32.05 m/s and 34.80 m/s,respectively.The volume of the first ice avalanche that entered the lake was approximately 8.47×106 m^(3).(2)Energy transfer between the front and rear was the key mechanism for the high-speed and long-range movement of ice ava-lanche-debris flow.(3)It was predicted that the main accumulation area on the northwest side formed after the ice avalanche at Aru No.85 Glacier(ice avalanche hazard)was approximately 1.1 km2,the small accumulation area on the northeast side was approximately 0.3 km2,and the total danger area was 3.28 km2.The result has scientific value and practical significance for ice avalanche disaster pre-vention and mitigation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

关 键 词：阿汝冰崩 冰崩-碎屑流 PFC~(3D) 运动特征 危险预测 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]