复杂产品系统后发追赶驱动因素研究——基于程序化扎根与系统动力学融合方法  

The Driving Factors of Catch-up in Complex Product Systems Based on the Fusion of Programmatic Grounded Theory and System Dynamics

作　　者：杨仲基 李新 武建龙 Yang Zhongji;Li Xin;Wu Jianlong(School of Economics and Management,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2025年第1期49-59,共11页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074061);黑龙江省社会科学基金项目(20JYC154);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M693816);黑龙江省博士后基金项目(LBH-Z21020)。

摘　　要：复杂产品系统领域的追赶历程表明,后发者能否成功实现追赶受到多重因素的共同驱动,已有研究忽视了不同因素在追赶过程中的差异化作用,导致后发者难以把握不同追赶阶段的关键驱动因素,从而影响追赶策略的制定。为此,以中国大飞机、核电以及高铁为研究对象,运用程序化扎根方法识别复杂产品系统后发追赶驱动因素,构建复杂产品系统后发追赶驱动因素系统动力学模型并进行仿真。研究发现,中国复杂产品系统处于“三跑并行”局面,不同后发追赶阶段存在差异化关键驱动因素。在跟随阶段,举国体制、二次创新、集成创新是关键驱动因素;在并行阶段,制度型市场开拓、自主研发、集成创新是关键驱动因素;在超越阶段,制度型市场规模、自主研发、举国体制是关键驱动因素。研究结论可为中国不同追赶阶段复杂产品系统后发追赶策略制定提供理论指导。Complex product systems(CoPS)include high-value products,capital goods,control systems,networks and civil engineering constructs.In a more specific way,they refer to over 80 types of one-off projects(or small-batches),including telecommunications exchanges,flight simulators,aircraft engines,avionics systems,train engines,air traffic control units,systems for electricity grids,offshore oil equipment,intelligent buildings,and cellular phone network equipment.CoPS bears the linkage-driven characteristics of technological complexity and engineering intensity.Achieving technological breakthroughs can drive the development of related industries.In recent years,China has successfully developed the C919 mainline passenger aircraft,the"Fuxing"standard electric multiple unit,and the third-generation independent nuclear power technology"Guohe No.1".These achievements have proven that China has been transformed from a"follower"to a"parallel"or"leader"in some CoPS fields;however,there are bottlenecks in some key technologies and the related CoPS are in a dilemma,such as lithography machines and heavy-duty gas turbines,which are blockaded by the firstmover countries.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth exploration of the key driving factors of catch-up so as to formulate effective catch-up strategies.The catch-up process in the field of CoPS shows that the successful catch-up of latecomers is driven by multiple factors.The existing studies have used case study methods to explore how the CoPS achieve latecomer catch-up and why they can realize catch-up development,but there are still deficiencies.For one thing,the differentiated role of diversity factors in the catch-up process makes it difficult for latecomers to grasp the key driving factors in different catch-up stages;for another,single case studies are unable to make relatively accurate quantitative judgments and reveal the differential effects of these common driving factors at different stages of catching up in CoPS,thereby affecting the formulation and imple

关 键 词：复杂产品系统 后发追赶 驱动因素 程序化扎根 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]