基于逻辑回归-模糊层次分析模型的公路沿线滑坡易发性评价  

Landslide susceptibility assessment along highways based on LR-FAHP model

作　　者：林沛文 何书 鲜木斯艳·阿布迪克依木[3] 叶祉 LIN Peiwen;HE Shu;ABUDIKEYIMU XMSY;YE Zhi(Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Low-Carbon Processing and Utilization of Strategic Metal Mineral Resources,Ganzhou 341000,China;School Resources Environmental Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xinjiang Institute of Engineering,Urumqi 830023,China)

机构地区：[1]战略金属矿产资源低碳加工与利用江西省重点实验室,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院,江西赣州341000 [3]新疆工程学院安全科学与工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830023

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2024年第6期27-36,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：江西省自然科学基金面上项目(20232BAB203069)。

摘　　要：为了弥补模糊层次分析中构造模糊关系矩阵主观性较强的不足,构建了一种基于逻辑回归-模糊层次分析的滑坡易发性评价模型。以崇义县X387公路为例,基于实地调查,共获取198处滑坡数据。在综合分析滑坡孕育特征基础上,选取11个评价因子:坡度、坡向、高程、平面曲率、距道路距离、距水系距离、降雨、地层岩性、距断层距离、归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)和土地利用分类。采用逻辑回归对评价因子进行相关性分析,分析结果用于构造模糊关系矩阵,进而构建逻辑回归-模糊层次分析耦合模型。将耦合模型应用于山区公路沿线滑坡易发性评价,结果显示,耦合模型的滑坡预测成功率达到90.70%,与单一的逻辑回归模型和模糊层次分析法模型相比,预测精度分别提高约7.10%和2.15%。研究结果表明,构建的耦合模型是一种有效且可靠的滑坡易发性评价模型,可为公路沿线滑坡防治提供一定科学依据。In order to compensate for the strong subjectivity of constructing fuzzy relational matrices in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,a landslide susceptibility evaluation model based on logistic regression-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was constructed.Taking X387 highway in Chongyi County as an example,based on field investigation,a total of 198 landslide data were obtained.On the basis of comprehensive analysis of landslide development characteristics,11 evaluation factors were selected,slope,aspect of slope,elevation,plane curvature,distance from highway,distance from stream,rainfall,lithology,distance from fault,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and land use classification.Using logistic regression to analyze the correlation of evaluation factors,the analysis results are used to construct a fuzzy relational matrix,and then a logistic regression fuzzy analytic hierarchy process coupling model is constructed.The coupling model was applied to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides along mountainous highways,and the results showed that the success rate of landslide prediction by the coupling model reached 90.70%.Compared with a single logistic regression model and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model,the prediction accuracy was improved by about 7.10%and 2.15%,respectively.The research results indicate that the constructed coupling model is an effective and reliable landslide susceptibility evaluation model,which can provide a certain scientific basis for landslide prevention and control along highways.

关 键 词：滑坡易发性评价 逻辑回归 模糊层次分析法 加权频率比 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]