基于异混合分布的分布预测方法及其在风速分布预测中的应用  

Distribution prediction method based on heterogeneous mixture distributionand application to wind speed distribution prediction

作　　者：尹锐 郑海涛[1] 李旭涛 黄国庆 YIN Rui;ZHENG Haitao;LI Xutao;HUANG Guoqing(School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学数学学院,四川成都611756 [2]重庆大学土木工程学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2024年第6期143-150,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务经费项目(SWJTU,2682021ZTPY078);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51578471)。

摘　　要：风灾是常见的自然灾害之一,防风、抗风在工程中也是较为重要的研究领域。为了探求风速数据的特征和规律,增加抗灾能力,从风速分布的角度切入分析,引入混合分布并建立了分布参数与高度信息的关系,克服了传统单峰灵活性差、无法呈现双峰或多峰特征的不足,拓展了风速分布拟合和插值的适应范围。针对所提出的模型,研究了相应的算法。研究结果表明,所提出的方法具有有效性和可行性,为风速的插值预测提供了一种实际的解决方案,也为一些建筑物和抗风工具的设计提供依据,更为统计的模型和方法提出了新的启示。Wind disasters are one of the common natural disasters.Wind proofing and wind resistance are important research areas in engineering.In order to explore the characteristics and laws of wind speed data and increase the disaster resistance,this paper analyzes from the perspective of wind speed distribution,introduces the mixed distribution and establishes the relationship between the distribution parameters and the height information.The proposed method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional single-peak partitioning that is less flexible and unable to present the double-peak or multi-peak characteristics.Moreover,it expands the adaptive range of wind speed distribution fitting and interpolation.For the proposed model,the corresponding algorithm is studied in this paper.The study results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the method proposed in this paper,which provides a practical solution for the prediction and interpolation of wind speed.It also provides a basis for the design of some buildings and wind-resistant tools,and brings new inspirations to the statistical models and methods.

关 键 词：异混合分布 最大期望算法 参数模型 检验统计量 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] TK81[理学—数学]