基于组合赋权—集对分析模型的高校火灾风险评估  

College Fire Risk Assessment Based on a Combined Empowerment-Set-Pair Analysis Model

作　　者：孟丽萍 胡立嵩[1] 张小圆 周璇 MENG Liping;HU Lisong;ZHANG Xiaoyuan;ZHOU Xuan(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学资源与安全工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全》2024年第12期1-7,共7页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为科学评估高校火灾风险状况,提升火灾防范与控制能力,本文提出基于组合赋权—集对分析模型的高校火灾风险评估。首先,建立高校火灾风险评估指标体系,采用层次分析法与熵权法计算指标权重并进行组合赋权;其次,应用集对分析理论计算评估指标的四元联系数,明确划分高校火灾风险等级;最后,通过联系数函数分析各指标态势,得到各指标的发展趋势。以武汉某高校为例,运用此方法进行火灾风险评估。结果表明:高校火灾风险态势判定为弱同势11级,火灾风险相对较低,防控仍需强化。所得结论与实际情况高度一致。该模型不仅适用于高校火灾风险预判,也为其他场所的火灾风险评估提供有效参考。In order to scientifically evaluate the fire risk status in colleges and universities and improve the fire prevention and control ability,this paper proposes the university fire risk assessment based on the combined empowerment-set analysis model.Firstly,the university fire risk assessment index system is established,and the hierarchical analysis method and entropy weight method are used to calculate the index weight and combine the weight;in the second,analyze the situation of the index to obtain the development trend of each index.Taking a university in Wuhan as an example,this method was used to study the fire risk assessment.The results show that the fire risk situation in colleges and universities is determined to be weak and level 11,and the fire risk is relatively low,and the prevention and control still need to be strengthened.The conclusions obtained are highly consistent with the actual situation.This model is not only suitable for college fire risk prediction,but also provides an effective reference basis for fire risk assessment in other similar places.

关 键 词：高校火灾 集对分析(SPA) 组合赋权 风险评估 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]