火灾扰动下北京轨道交通网络化运营脆弱性评价  

Vulnerability Evaluation of Beijing Urban Rail Transit Network Operation System Under Fire Disturbance

作　　者：朱珺[1] 翟怀远[2] 陈珺 张岩 ZHU Jun;ZHAI Huaiyuan;CHEN Jun;ZHANG Yan(Beijing Metro Network Administration Company Limited,Beijing 100101,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100091,China;Beijing MTR Corporation Limited,Beijing 100068,China)

机构地区：[1]北京轨道交通路网管理有限公司,北京100101 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100091 [3]北京京港地铁有限公司,北京100068

出　　处：《安全》2024年第12期15-22,共8页Safety & Security

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目(19GLB035)。

摘　　要：为评价北京轨道交通网络化运营系统整体面临火灾扰动时的脆弱性,全面提升防控火灾事故风险的能力,基于脆弱性三因素理论,构建适用于网络化运营的4层结构脆弱性指标体系,体系根据核心业务分解为行车组织、客运服务、电力供应、环境控制4个子系统,并对各子系统从暴露度、敏感度、适应度3个维度分解火灾事故发展相关的脆弱性指标;采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对系统脆弱性评价进行实证研究。结果表明:使用该指标体系进行评价,网络化运营脆弱性程度在一般和较高之间偏向于一般,与实际情况相符合,同时根据评价结果指出主要脆弱性改进方向建议。上述研究可为相关业务部门从系统整体脆弱性出发持续评估和优化运营防火安全措施提供管理思路和科学依据。In order to evaluate the vulnerability of overall Beijing urban rail transit network operation system under fire disturbance,and entirely improve the capacity of fire accident risk prevention and control,based on the vulnerability three-element theory,a four-layer structure vulnerability evaluation index system applied for network operation system was constructed.According to core businesses,the index system was described by dividing into four subsystems:traffic organization,passenger service,power supply and environmental control.The vulnerability index focusing on each subsystem relating to fire emergency accident development was decomposed from three dimensions:exposure,sensitivity and adaptability separately.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method are used for empirical study.The research results show that by using this index system to evaluate,the overall vulnerability of network operation tends to be average between average and high,which is consistent with the actual situation,and main vulnerability improving advices are indicated as well,according to the results of evaluation.Through above research,management method and scientific basis have been provided for relevant business departments to continuously evaluate and optimize operational fire safety measures from the perspective of the overall system vulnerability.

关 键 词：轨道交通 网络化运营风险 脆弱性评价 火灾 指标体系 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]