基于累积效应的房屋建筑施工事故致因模型构建  

Construction of Accident Causal Model for Building Construction Project Based on Cumulative Effects

作　　者：曹东强 成连华 刘业娇 CAO Dongqiang;CHENG Lianhua;LIU Yejiao(College of Mining and Coal,Inner Mongolia University of Science&Technology,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014017,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi an University of Science and Technology,Xi an Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学矿业与煤炭学院,内蒙古包头014017 [2]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《安全》2024年第12期51-58,共8页Safety & Security

基　　金：2023年度内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(2023QNJS095)。

摘　　要：为丰富事故致因理论体系,从风险累积的视角,构建基于累积效应的房屋建筑施工事故致因模型。通过分析大量典型事故调查报告,引入复杂系统思想,借鉴事故致因模型提出的防护屏障和事故分析层级,识别出事故分析各层级的事故致因因素;从复杂系统演化视域下分析事故演化过程和系统风险累积过程,提出事故的触发条件,构建了基于累积效应的房屋建筑施工事故致因模型,并以案例分析验证模型。结果表明:该模型能够系统识别出导致事故的原因,揭示事故演化、风险累积、系统风险之间的对应关系,揭示风险累积的内在形成过程,这证实了基于累积效应的事故致因模型的可用性。研究可为现阶段事故预防和分析提供决策依据。In order to enrich the theoretical system of accident causation,a building construction accident causation model based on cumulative effect is constructed from a new perspective of risk accumulation.By analyzing a large number of typical accident investigation reports,introducing the concept of complex systems,drawing on the proposed protective barriers and accident analysis levels of accident causation models,the accident causation factors at each level of accident analysis are identified.From the perspective of complex system evolution,we analyzed the accident evolution process and system risk accumulation process,proposed the trigger conditions of accidents,and constructed a causal model of house building construction accidents based on the cumulative effect.The model is validated with a case study,and the results show that the model can systematically identify the causes leading to accidents,reveal the correspondence between accident evolution,risk accumulation,and system risk.,and reveal the inherent formation process of rish accumulation,which confirms the usability of the accident causation model based on the cumulative effect.This research provides decision-making basis for accident prevention and analysis at the current stage.

关 键 词：事故致因理论 事故分析层次 累积效应 房屋建筑施工 复杂系统 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]