考虑季节因素的光伏出力主-噪成分概率特性分析及场景构建方法  

PROBABILITY CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO MODELING METHOD FOR MAIN-NOISE COMPONENTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER OUTPUT CONSIDERING SEASONAL FACTORS

作　　者：马昊天 刘科研 盛万兴 何开元 Ma Haotian;Liu Keyan;Sheng Wanxing;He Kaiyuan(China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2024年第12期154-164,共11页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(5400-202355559A-3-2-ZN)。

摘　　要：提出一种考虑季节因素的光伏电站出力多场景模拟生成方法,通过对不同季节下的采集数据在基础分量(主成分)和随机分量(噪声成分)两方面分别进行分析与构建,从而实现光伏电站输出功率在不同季节下的有效建模。首先采取基于Beta分布的概率化模型实现光伏出力基础分量的最优模拟,并给出不同季节下的Beta参数区间估计方法;其次,利用有色噪声模型来模拟光伏出力随机分量的不确定特征,针对不同季节下光伏出力具备不同的波动强度,给出随机分量噪声参数构建方法;之后,利用所给出的基础分量和随机分量联合模拟不同季节下的光伏电站出力分布,完成光伏季节场景的构建;最后,基于中国东南某地区光伏电站实测数据进行案例分析,验证所提方法的适用性。The proportion of photovoltaic power generation systems connected to the transmission and distribution grid has increased year by year.Because the output of photovoltaic power stations in different seasons usually has a large difference in output characteristics,the traditional universal photovoltaic output simulation method is difficult to cope with the requirements of simulation scenarios under various conditions.Addressing this challenge,the present study introduces a multi-scenario simulation approach for accurately modeling the seasonal power outputs of photovoltaic plants.This approach involves a detailed analysis of data gathered across different seasons,deconstructing it into fundamental(principal)components and stochastic(noise)elements.Thus,the output power of photovoltaic power stations can be effectively modeled in different seasons.In our proposed framework,firstly,a probabilistic model based on Beta distribution is adopted to simulate the optimal base component of PV output,and the Beta parameter interval estimation method under different seasons is given.Secondly,the colored noise model is used to simulate the uncertainty characteristics of the random component of photovoltaic power output.According to the different fluctuation intensity of photovoltaic power output in different seasons,the construction method of random component noise parameters is given.Then,the base component and random component are used to simulate the output distribution of photovoltaic power stations in different seasons,and the construction of photovoltaic seasonal scenarios is completed.Finally,a case study based on the measured data of a photovoltaic power station in southeast China is carried out to verify the applicability of the proposed method.

关 键 词：光伏发电系统 光伏效应 发电 BETA分布 色噪声模型 场景生成 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]