考虑分布式风电出力相关性的配电网概率区间潮流计算方法  

Probability interval power flow calculation method for distribution network considering correlation of distributed wind power output

作　　者：廖小兵 张一鸣 李自成[1] 魏寒琪 丁画 李奔 LIAO Xiaobing;ZHANG Yiming;LI Zicheng;WEI Hanqi;DING Hua;LI Ben(School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430073,China;State Grid Integrated Energy Service Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100052,China;Ezhou Power Supply Branch Company of State Grid Hubei Electricity Company,Ezhou 436000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学电气信息学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]国网综合能源服务集团有限公司,北京100052 [3]国网湖北省电力有限公司鄂州供电分公司,湖北鄂州436000

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2025年第1期25-32,共8页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52107122);湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队计划项目(T2022012)。

摘　　要：为了更加准确地模拟分布式风电接入对配电网不确定性潮流分布的影响,提出考虑相关性的配电网概率区间潮流计算方法。将分布式风电出力区间划分成若干个子区间并赋予子区间对应的概率,并构建分布式风电出力的焦元模型;结合仿射算术将基于焦元模型的配电网概率区间潮流模型转化为仿射优化模型,并采用平行四边形模型、凸多边形模型、椭球模型来描述分布式风电出力的相关性,通过坐标变换将相关性模型转换为仿射约束条件,并将其嵌入仿射优化模型中进行联立求解;根据证据理论合成规则得到配电网概率区间潮解的概率边界。2个配电网的算例仿真结果表明,所建模型可以通过最大、最小概率描述潮流解的不确定度,同时椭球模型对相关性的建模比其他2类方法更准确。In order to simulate the impact of distributed wind power access on the uncertain power flow distribution of distribution network more accurately,a probability interval power flow calculation method for distribution network considering correlation is proposed.The interval of distributed wind power output is divided into several sub-intervals and corresponding probabilities are assigned to the sub-intervals,and a focal element model of distributed wind power output is constructed.Combining the affine arithmetic,the probability interval power flow model of distribution network based on the focal element model is transformed into an affine optimization model.The parallelogram model,convex polygon model,and ellipsoid model are used to describe the correlation of distributed wind power output,and the correlation model is transformed into the affine constraint conditions through coordinate transformation,which are embedded into the affine optimization model for simultaneous solution.The probability boundary of probability interval power flow solution for distribution network is obtained according to the synthesis rules of evidence theory.The simulative results of two distribution network examples show that the established model can describe the uncertainty of power flow solution through maximum and minimum probabilities,and the ellipsoidal model is more accurate in modeling correlation than the other two methods.

关 键 词：配电网 概率区间潮流 相关性 仿射优化模型 证据理论 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]