长江流域现代化防洪安全体系构建及思考  

Establishment and thinking of modern flood control and safety system in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：陈永生 Chen Yongsheng

机构地区：[1]水利部长江水利委员会规划计划局,武汉430010

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第24期48-54,67,共8页China Water Resources

摘　　要：长江是中华民族的母亲河,防洪历来是长江治理保护的首要任务,聚焦长江流域防洪安全体系的构建,系统分析了新形势下长江流域的防洪特点和任务。新形势下,长江流域因其在国家经济、社会和生态中的重要地位,对防洪减灾提出了更高的要求。提出长江防洪规划的科学原则、目标及优化方案。从三个方面阐述了优化调整防洪规划的必要性。第一,随着流域城镇化和经济的快速发展,防洪保护区内的人口和财富高度聚集,洪灾损失放大效应明显。第二,三峡等上游控制性水库群的建设改变了中下游的洪水蓄泄格局,对防洪工程布局提出了新要求。第三,气候变化导致极端天气事件增多,加大了洪涝灾害的不确定性。基于以上挑战,提出现代化防洪安全体系建设的核心目标:到2035年实现“防洪工程系统化、防洪决策智能化、防洪管理法治化”,提升流域防洪韧性,确保长江安澜。具体措施包括优化中下游防洪控制水位、调整蓄滞洪区布局、加强洲滩民垸分类治理、完善雨水情监测预报体系,以及利用数字孪生技术实现流域防洪智能调度。强调构建现代化防洪安全体系不仅是保障流域经济社会可持续发展的基础,更是应对极端气候事件、推动人与自然和谐共生的重要保障,为实现长江流域的长治久安提供科学指导和政策依据。The Yangtze River is the mother river of the Chinese nation,and flood control has always been the primary task of river governance and conservation.Centered on establishment of flood control safety system,systematic analysis of features and tasks under the new situation was conducted that made high requirements for flood control and disaster reduction because of their dominated position in national economy,society,and ecology.Scientific principles,objectives,and optimization plans for flood control planning in the Yangtze River are introduced.The necessity of optimizing and adjusting flood control planning is discussed from three aspects.Firstly,population and assets in flood control protection areas are highly concentrated,with an obvious amplification effect of flood losses.Secondly,dam construction such as Three Gorges Project in the upper reach,has changed the pattern of flood storage and discharge in the middle and lower reaches,requiring new arrangement of flood control schemes.Thirdly,climate change has led to an increase in extreme weather events,increasing the uncertainty of flood disasters.Facing the above challenges,key goals for a modern flood control safety system are proposed.It aims to realize“systematic flood control,intelligent decision-making and law-based management”by 2035,so as to enhance the resilience and ensure safety of the Yangtze River.Specific measures include optimizing water level for flood control in the middle and lower reaches,adjusting the layout of flood storage and detention areas,strengthening classification and regulation of sandbars and embankments,rainwater monitoring and forecasting system and digital twin technology,to achieve intelligent scheduling in the basin.Establishment of a modern flood control and safety system shall not only safeguard sustainable development of economy and society,but also ensure effective response to extreme weather events and harmonious coexistence between man and nature.It can also provide scientific guidelines and policy bases to achieve

关 键 词：长江 防洪规划 防洪安全体系 洪水出路 防洪工程布局 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.2