福建及邻区地震活动异常探讨  

Discussion on the Seismicity Abnormal Activity of Zone in Fujian Province and Adjacent Area

作　　者：许振栋[1] 邓聪[1] Xu Zhendong;Deng Cong(Fuzhou Earthquake Monitoring Center Station,Fujian Earthquake Agency,Fuzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局福州地震监测中心站,福建福州

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2025年第4期44-47,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

摘　　要：福建已经超过十年没有发生大于5级以上地震,处于异常平静状态。这个平静期是否继续保持下去?如果能对中强以上地震作出较为准确的预测,将对当地产生良好的经济效益和社会效益。本文通过对福建地区历史地震、地震地质构造背景和1971年有测震仪器记录以来该区域地震活动进行分析,同时利用测震软件对该区域地震观测资料通过测震时序曲线综合分析,认为:1971年以来福建地区ML4.0级地震出现了8次平静期,平静期最长时间为5.4 a,最短时间为2.8 a。ML5.0级平静期最长时间为6.3 a,最短时间为0.8 a,现在已达13 a,长乐-诏安地震带能量释放水平处于低值,而且该区域2019年以来ML2.0级以上地震年频次处于均值线以下水平,目前处于应力积累状态。应注意福建地区尤其是长乐-诏安一带未来1~3年内有发生大于5级及以上地震的可能。Fujian has not experienced any earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5 for over ten years and is in an exceptionally calm state.Will this period of calm continue?If accurate predictions can be made for earthquakes of medium to strong intensity or above,it will have good economic and social value for the local area.This article analyzes the historical earthquakes,seismic geological structure background,and seismic activity in the Fujian region since the recording of seismic instruments in 1971.At the same time,seismic software is used to comprehensively analyze the seismic observation data in the region through seismic time series curves.It is believed that there have been 8 calm periods for ML4.0 earthquakes in the Fujian region since 1971,with the longest calm period being 5.4 years and the shortest being 2.8 years.The longest duration of the ML5.0 calm period was 6.3 years,and the shortest duration was 0.8 years.Now it has reached 13 years.The energy release level of the Changle Zhao'an earthquake zone is at a low level,and the annual frequency of ML2.0 and above earthquakes in the region has been below the mean line since 2019.Currently,it is in a state of stress accumulation.Attention should be paid to the possibility of earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurring in the Fujian region,especially in the Changle Zhao'an area,within the next 1~3 years.

关 键 词：福建及邻区 地震活动 异常分析 趋势讨论 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]