养老保险全国统筹:计发基数“各省为政”“全国统一”抑或“折中方案”?——基于共同富裕视角  

National Coordination of Pension Insurance: Should Calculation and Distribution Base Follow “Govern by Province”,“National Unification”,or a “Compromise Plan”?Perspective from Common Prosperity

作　　者：曾益[1] 屈君桥 毛恩荣 Zeng Yil;Qu Junqiao;Mao Enrong(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan;Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2024年第6期108-121,共14页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“职工养老保险全国统筹对地方政府保费征缴行为的影响:机制探讨、实证检验与政策优化”(项目编号:72304283)。

摘　　要：2022年我国实施养老保险全国统筹政策,但养老金计发基数仍以各省社平工资为准,未来计发基数应如何核定?文章基于共同富裕视角,通过人均养老金和泰尔指数考察了不同计发基数方案对共同富裕的影响:第一,如果计发基数以各省社平工资为准,2023~2050年全国人均养老金为53487~428756元,替代率为48.52%~49.22%,泰尔指数为0.4198~0.5065;第二,如果全国统一计发基数,2023~2050年全国人均养老金增至55730~457053元,泰尔指数降至0.3605~0.4111,利于实现共同富裕;第三,在全国统一方案下,部分省份出现养老金待遇下降问题,如采用折中方案,即待遇下降省份以省社平工资为计发基数,其他省份以全国社平工资为计发基数,共同富裕指数高于前两项方案,且折中方案的累计财政负担较前两项方案低18.6%。综上,文章认为,折中方案为实现共同富裕并减轻财政负担的最优方案。In 2022,China implemented a national coordination policy for pension insurance,but the calculation and distribution base for pensions remains tied to the average social wages of each province.How should this base be determined in the future?From the perspective of common prosperity,this study examines the impact of different calculation and distribution base schemes on common prosperity,using per capita pensions and the Thiel index as key metrics.1.If the calculation and distribution base continues to rely on each province's average social wage,the national per capita pension from 2023 to 2050 would range between 53,487 and 428,756 yuan,with a replacement rate of 48.52%to 49.22%and a Thiel index of 0.4198 to 0.5065.2.If a unified national base is adopted,the national per capita pension would increase to 55,730 to 457,053 yuan over the same period,with the Thiel index dropping to 0.3605 to 0.4111,promoting greater equity and aiding common prosperity.3.However,under the unified scheme,some provinces may see a drop in pension benefits.A compromise plan-where provinces experiencing reduced benefits use their provincial average social wage as the base,while others adopt the national base-would achieve a higher common prosperity index than the first two approaches.Additionally,the cumulative financial burden under the compromise plan would be 18.6%lower than the other two schemes.In conclusion,the compromise plan emerges as the optimal solution to balance achieving common prosperity with reducing fiscal burdens.

关 键 词：养老保险 全国统筹 计发基数 共同富裕 财政负担 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]