民主改革时代印度尼西亚政治家族崛起的逻辑分析--政党体制低制度化与庇护式权力运作  

The Low Institutionalization of Party System and the Operation of Patronage Power:The Logic of Political Dynasty's Rise in the Reform Era of Indonesia

作　　者：夏方波 XIA Fangbo(School of International Relations and Diplomacy,Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100089)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院,北京100089

出　　处：《南洋问题研究》2024年第4期32-50,共19页Southeast Asian Affairs

基　　金：国家社科基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项2023年度重大招标项目“东南亚现代国家发展历史”(23VLS026);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“东南亚国家治理分离主义运动的策略选择研究”(246500124002)。

摘　　要：家族政治是现代政治中诸如家产制、世袭制与父权制等传统要素的延续,但是面临着弱制度性和政治代表性匮乏的内生困境。2024年印尼总统佐科的长子吉布兰在传统政治家族把持政党与选举资源的限制下,以36岁低龄成功当选副总统,标志着佐科政治家族的正式崛起。佐科如何有效地克服家族政治的内生困境成为理解后威权时代印尼权力政治逻辑的有效切入点。民主改革过程中产生的印尼政党体制低制度化在政党品牌、党内政治和党群关系方面为庇护式权力运作打开了方便之门,魅力领袖能够借助政治声望与社会资源渗透政党,干预提名,动员和转移民意支持,最终促成佐科家族从地方至国家政治层面的跃迁。可以预见,无论是普拉博沃的政权还是佐科家族后辈的政治生涯,都将继续受到佐科及其政治遗产的影响。佐科凭借自身积累的民意支持和政治资源,依旧能够对印尼高层政治的走向施加强大的影响。Dynastic politics is a continuation of the traditional elements of modern politics,such as patrimonial,hereditary and patriarchal systems of family,but it faces endogenous dilemmas such as weak institutional basis and lack of political representation.In 2024,Jokowi s son,Gibran,was elected as Vice President of Indonesia at the young age of 36,marking the rise of the Jokowi political dynasty,despite the strong constraints of the traditional dynasties control of political parties and electoral resources.How Jokowi overcame the endogenous shortcomings of political dynasty has become an effective entry point for understanding the logic of Indonesian power politics in the post-authoritarian era.This article argues that the low institutionalization of the Indonesian party system has opened the door to patronage-style power operations in terms of party branding,intra-party politics,and party-mass relations,allowing charismatic leaders to leverage political prestige and social resources to infiltrate political parties,intervene in political nominations,and mobilize and divert public support,which ultimately contributed to the Jokowi family s leap from the local to the national level of politics in Indonesia.It can be expected that both Prabowo s governance and the political careers of Jokowi s descendants will continue to be influenced by Jokowi and his political legacy,and that Jokowi will continue to exert a strong influence on the direction of Indonesian high-level politics through the abundant public support and political resources he has accumulated.

关 键 词：印度尼西亚 家族政治 政党体制 庇护式权力 

分 类 号：D734.2[政治法律—政治学]