1990—2019年中国一氧化碳中毒疾病负担趋势分析及预测  

Trend and prediction of the disease burden of carbon monoxide poisoning in China

作　　者：王超成 段昕昀 杜宇 WANG Chaocheng;DUAN Xinyun;DU Yu(West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China,Sichuan Univetsity,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;China-PUMC C.C.Chen Institute of Health,Sichuan Univetsity,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学华西-协和陈志潜卫生健康研究院卫生应急管理研究中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2024年第11期1251-1256,共6页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：四川省科技计划重点研发项目(2023YFS0205)。

摘　　要：[背景]如今我国急性一氧化碳中毒是导致职业性与非职业性中毒发病与死亡的主要因素之一,成为严重的公共健康问题,了解当前和预测未来一氧化碳中毒的疾病负担对于今后采取有效疾病预防控制策略至关重要。[目的]了解1990—2019年中国一氧化碳中毒的疾病负担状况并对其后十年发病率和死亡率趋势进行预测,为我国预防一氧化碳中毒提供科学依据。[方法]提取全球疾病负担数据库(GBD2019)中中国1990—2019年一氧化碳中毒的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)等数据。利用Joinpoint5.0.2软件进行一氧化碳中毒疾病负担的时间趋势分析,并计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及其95%CI。采用R 4.3.3建立贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(BAPC)和Nordpred年龄-时期-队列模型预测2020—2029年中国居民一氧化碳中毒疾病负担。[结果]我国1990—2019年一氧化碳年龄标化发病率总体呈上升趋势,AAPC=1.05%,其中女性AAPC=0.90%,男性AAPC=1.16%。1990—2019年年龄标化死亡率和年龄标化DALYs总体上呈下降趋势且男性和女性的AAPC均<0。根据BAPC模型的预测结果,预计2020—2029年我国年龄标化发病率呈上升趋势,其中女性年龄标化发病率从2020年的18.85/10万上升至2029年的19.12/10万,男性从2020年的22.51/10万上升至2029年的22.60/10万;年龄标化死亡率则呈下降趋势,其中女性从2020年的0.70/10万下降至2029年的0.52/10万,男性从2020年的1.13/10万下降至2029年的0.97/10万。Nordpred年龄-时期-队列模型的预测结果趋势与BAPC模型一致,说明结果较为稳定。[结论]一氧化碳中毒在1990—2019年期间对中国居民造成了较为严重的疾病负担,重点影响人群为青少年和中老年人。预测结果显示年龄标准化发病率和发病人数在过去和未来均呈上升趋势,因此仍然需要深化落实对一氧化碳中毒发生和发展的防治,减少其对人民[Background]Acute carbon monoxide poisoning is now one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in occupational and non-occupational poisoning in China,and become a serious public health problem.Understanding the current and predicting the future disease burden of carbon monoxide poisoning are essential for adopting effective disease prevention and control strategies in the future.[Objective]To understand the burden of disease of carbon monoxide poisoning in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trend of morbidity and mortality in the following decade to provide a scientific basis for the prevention of carbon monoxide poisoning in China.[Methods]The incidence,mortality and disability-adjusted-life-years(DALYs)rates of carbon monoxide poisoning in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database(GBD2019).Time trend analysis of the burden of disease for carbon monoxide poisoning was performed using Joinpoint 5.0.2 software,and annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)and their 95%CIs were calculated.Bayesian age-period-cohort model(BAPC)and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used in R 4.3.3 to predict the disease burden of carbon monoxide poisoning among Chinese residents in 2020—2029.[Results]An overall increasing trend of the age-standardized incidence rate of carbon monoxide poisoning in China from 1990 to 2019 was observed and AAPC=1.05%,of which the AAPC for women was 0.90%and that for men was 1.16%.An overall decreasing trend of the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs from 1990 to 2019 was observed and the AAPC for males or females was<0.the results of the BAPC model expected that an increasing trend from 2020 to 2029 in age-standardized morbidity rate(females:18.85/100000 in 2020 to 19.12/100,000 in 2029;males:22.51/100000 in 2020 to 22.60/100000 in 2029);and a decreasing trend in agestandardized mortality rate(females:0.70/100,000 in 2020 to 0.52/100000 in 2029;males:1.13/100000 in 2020 to 0.97/100000 in 2029)

关 键 词：一氧化碳中毒 中国 疾病负担 变化趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]